Trump's Influence Looms Over Munich Security Conference

Tensions rise as U.S. delegation arrives amid concerns over Trump's 'America First' policies

Published on Feb. 10, 2026

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The upcoming Munich Security Conference comes at a time of unprecedented strain in trans-Atlantic relations, with European leaders anxious about the potential for Donald Trump to further dismantle the post-World War II global order during his second term as president. The large U.S. delegation, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will be closely watched for signs of whether Washington still sees itself as the steward of a rules-based international system or has fully embraced Trump's 'America First' doctrine of unilateral action and transactional diplomacy.

Why it matters

The Munich Security Conference is a critical forum for trans-Atlantic cooperation, but Trump's skepticism of multilateral institutions like NATO has rattled European allies and raised fears that U.S. support can no longer be taken for granted. As peace talks on the Russia-Ukraine war enter a crucial phase, the conference will test whether the U.S. and its European partners can present a united front.

The details

Trump's 'America First' approach, which he has emphasized in both his first and second terms, has prioritized unilateral action over institutional engagement, weakening confidence in U.S. leadership and emboldening rival powers like Russia and China. His regular attacks on NATO, including false claims about the alliance's role in the Afghanistan War, have revived fears that the U.S. could downgrade its commitment to Europe's security.

  • The Munich Security Conference opens on Friday, February 14, 2026.
  • Last year at the conference, Vice President JD Vance delivered a blistering address that sent shockwaves through European capitals.
  • NATO leaders agreed in 2025 to raise combined defense and related security spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.

The players

Donald Trump

The former U.S. president, whose 'America First' doctrine has prioritized unilateral action and transactional diplomacy over institutional engagement, weakening confidence in U.S. leadership and emboldening rival powers.

Marco Rubio

The current U.S. Secretary of State, who will lead the American delegation to the Munich Security Conference.

Emmanuel Macron

The President of France, who has urged Europe to start acting like a global 'power' and rethink long-held assumptions about security, economics, and democracy.

Matthew Whitaker

The U.S. ambassador to NATO, who tried to reassure Western allies that Trump is 'not trying to dismantle NATO'.

Wolfgang Ischinger

The former diplomat who chairs the Munich Security Conference, who warned of a 'crisis of trust' in the trans-Atlantic relationship.

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What they’re saying

“At the moment, trans-Atlantic relations are, in my view, in a considerable crisis of trust and credibility.”

— Wolfgang Ischinger, Chairman, Munich Security Conference (Munich Security Conference)

“You've got a continent of 500 million [Europe], asking a continent of 300 million [US] to deal with a continent of 140 million [Russia]. It's the wrong way around.”

— Sir Alex Younger, Former Chief, British Security Service MI6 (BBC)

“At the end of a crisis, there is a cowardly tendency to sit back and say 'phew'. There are threats and intimidation, and then suddenly Washington gives way. And people think it's over. Don't believe it for a single second.”

— Emmanuel Macron, President of France (Munich Security Conference)

What’s next

The next round of peace negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine war is expected to take place next week in Miami.

The takeaway

The Munich Security Conference will be a critical test of whether the U.S. and its European allies can present a united front in the face of Trump's 'America First' policies, which have weakened confidence in American leadership and emboldened rival powers like Russia and China. The conference will also shape perceptions of whether the post-World War II global order can be preserved or is headed for further fragmentation.