Trump Misjudged Iran's Resilience, Leaving Few Options to Avoid War

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

According to analysts, the Trump administration's aggressive policies toward Iran, including the withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the imposition of harsh sanctions, have backfired. Iran has proven more resilient than expected, and the two countries now find themselves on a collision course with few diplomatic options remaining to prevent an outright military conflict.

Why it matters

The escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran pose significant risks of a wider regional war that could have devastating humanitarian and geopolitical consequences. Resolving the standoff peacefully is crucial, but the path forward remains highly uncertain given the entrenched positions on both sides.

The details

The Trump administration's 'maximum pressure' campaign against Iran, including unilaterally withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposing crippling economic sanctions, was intended to force Iran to the negotiating table. However, Iran has proven more resilient than expected, doubling down on its regional influence and nuclear program in response. This has left the U.S. and Iran on a collision course, with few viable diplomatic off-ramps remaining.

• The Trump administration withdrew the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal in May 2018.
• The U.S. has steadily ratcheted up sanctions on Iran since 2018, targeting its oil exports, financial sector, and other key industries.

What they’re saying

What’s next

Experts warn that the U.S. and Iran are running out of time to find a diplomatic off-ramp before the risk of a direct military confrontation becomes dangerously high.