Chocolate Prices Soar Ahead of Valentine's Day

Cocoa shortage drives up costs for chocolate makers and consumers

Published on Feb. 14, 2026

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Chocolate prices have surged 14.4% in early 2026 compared to the same period last year, nearly doubling the pace of price increases from 2025. The sharp rise is attributed to a cocoa shortage caused by adverse weather and crop disease in West Africa, which produces about 70% of the world's cocoa. Analysts say the dearth of cocoa has driven up input costs for chocolate makers, leading to higher retail prices and sticker shock for shoppers.

Why it matters

The spike in chocolate prices ahead of Valentine's Day, a major holiday for chocolate sales, could impact consumer spending and demand. The issue also highlights the vulnerability of the global cocoa supply chain to weather and climate-related disruptions.

The details

Raw cocoa bean prices have risen dramatically in recent years, with a metric ton costing as much as $12,000 in 2025 compared to $2,000-$2,500 before the pandemic. While cocoa prices have come down significantly from last year's peak, to around $3,700 per metric ton, chocolate makers are still working through inventory purchased at higher prices, keeping retail costs elevated. The White House has announced framework trade agreements with some Latin American countries in an attempt to ease surging prices for grocery staples like cocoa, but prices for other imported foods like coffee and beef remain high as well.

  • Chocolate prices soared 14.4% over the initial weeks of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
  • In November 2025, the White House announced framework trade agreements with some Latin American countries to try to ease surging prices for grocery staples like cocoa.

The players

Datasembly

An intelligence firm that shared findings on the surge in chocolate prices with ABC News.

David Branch

Sector manager at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, who provided analysis on the cocoa shortage and chocolate price outlook.

David Ortega

A food economist at Michigan State University, who commented on the impact of high cocoa prices moving through the supply chain.

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What they’re saying

“There is a record gap between supply and demand.”

— David Branch, Sector manager, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute (ABC News)

“A lot of manufacturers bought cocoa when prices were high and that's still very much moving through the supply chain.”

— David Ortega, Food economist, Michigan State University (ABC News)

What’s next

If market trends stay where they are, analysts say chocolate prices could fall by the latter part of 2026 as manufacturers find cost relief and pass it along to shoppers.

The takeaway

The spike in chocolate prices ahead of Valentine's Day highlights the vulnerability of the global cocoa supply chain to weather and climate-related disruptions, and the ripple effects that can have on consumer prices and spending.