Chocolate Prices Soar Ahead of Valentine's Day

Cocoa shortage drives up costs for chocolate makers and consumers

Published on Feb. 14, 2026

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Chocolate prices have surged 14.4% in early 2026 compared to the same period a year earlier, nearly doubling the pace of price increases from 2025. The sharp rise is attributed to a cocoa shortage caused by adverse weather and crop disease in West Africa, which produces about 70% of the world's cocoa supply. Analysts say the dearth of cocoa has driven up input costs for chocolate makers, leading to higher retail prices that are causing sticker shock for Valentine's Day shoppers.

Why it matters

The soaring chocolate prices are putting a damper on one of the biggest candy-buying holidays of the year, as consumers face higher costs for a traditional Valentine's Day gift. The issue highlights the vulnerability of the global cocoa supply chain to weather-related disruptions and the ripple effects on consumer prices.

The details

Cocoa bean prices have risen dramatically in recent years, from around $2,000-$2,500 per metric ton before the pandemic to as high as $12,000 per metric ton last year. While cocoa prices have come down significantly from their peak, chocolate makers are still working through inventory purchased at elevated costs, keeping retail prices high. The Biden administration has announced trade agreements with some Latin American countries in an attempt to ease supply issues, but prices for other imported food items like coffee and beef remain elevated as well.

  • Chocolate prices surged 14.4% in the initial weeks of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
  • Cocoa bean prices reached as high as $12,000 per metric ton last year, up from $2,000-$2,500 per metric ton before the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Cocoa bean prices have since come down to around $3,700 per metric ton in recent months.

The players

Datasembly

An intelligence firm that shared data on the chocolate price increases with ABC News.

David Branch

Sector manager at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, who provided analysis on the cocoa supply and price outlook.

David Ortega

A food economist at Michigan State University, who commented on the impact of high cocoa prices moving through the supply chain.

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What they’re saying

“There is a record gap between supply and demand.”

— David Branch, Sector manager, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute

“A lot of manufacturers bought cocoa when prices were high and that's still very much moving through the supply chain.”

— David Ortega, Food economist, Michigan State University

What’s next

If market trends stay on their current trajectory, analysts say chocolate prices could fall by the latter part of 2026 as manufacturers find cost relief and pass it along to shoppers, potentially leading to lower prices for Halloween candy.

The takeaway

The soaring chocolate prices ahead of Valentine's Day highlight the vulnerability of the global cocoa supply chain to weather-related disruptions, and the ripple effects on consumer prices for a beloved holiday treat. While the situation may improve later in the year, the uncertainty surrounding future crop yields underscores the need for a more resilient and diversified cocoa supply network.