Chocolate Prices Soar Ahead of Valentine's Day

Cocoa shortage drives up costs for chocolate makers and consumers

Published on Feb. 14, 2026

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Chocolate prices have risen sharply in early 2026, up 14.4% compared to the same period a year earlier, due to a cocoa shortage caused primarily by adverse weather and crop disease in West Africa, which accounts for about 70% of the world's cocoa supply. The dearth of cocoa has ratcheted up input costs for chocolate makers, leading to sticker shock for Valentine's Day shoppers.

Why it matters

The surge in chocolate prices highlights the vulnerability of the global cocoa supply chain to weather-related disruptions and the impact that can have on a beloved Valentine's Day tradition. While prices are expected to ease in the coming months as the supply situation improves, the episode underscores the need for more resilient and diversified sources of cocoa to meet growing worldwide demand.

The details

Raw cocoa bean prices have risen dramatically in recent years, from between $2,000-$2,500 per metric ton before the COVID-19 pandemic to as much as $12,000 per metric ton last year. While cocoa bean costs have come down significantly from that peak, to around $3,700 per metric ton currently, chocolate makers are still working through inventory purchased at the higher prices, keeping retail prices elevated.

  • Chocolate prices soared 14.4% over the initial weeks of 2026 when compared to the same period a year earlier.
  • In November 2025, the White House announced framework trade agreements with some Latin American countries in an attempt to ease surging prices for grocery staples such as cocoa.

The players

Datasembly

An intelligence firm that shared findings on the sharp rise in chocolate prices with ABC News.

David Branch

Sector manager at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, who told ABC News that there is a "record gap between supply and demand" for cocoa.

David Ortega

A food economist at Michigan State University, who told ABC News that chocolate makers are still selling through candy made with cocoa beans bought at higher prices.

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What they’re saying

“There is a record gap between supply and demand.”

— David Branch, Sector manager, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute (ABC News)

“A lot of manufacturers bought cocoa when prices were high and that's still very much moving through the supply chain.”

— David Ortega, Food economist, Michigan State University (ABC News)

What’s next

If market trends stay where they are, chocolate prices could fall by the latter part of 2026 as manufacturers find cost relief and pass it along to shoppers, according to David Branch of Wells Fargo.

The takeaway

The surge in chocolate prices ahead of Valentine's Day underscores the vulnerability of the global cocoa supply chain to weather-related disruptions and the need for more resilient and diversified sources of cocoa to meet growing worldwide demand for this beloved confection.