Forecasters Predict Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Colorado State University expects fewer storms due to emerging El Niño pattern.

Apr. 9, 2026 at 5:07pm

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A vast, atmospheric landscape painting depicting an approaching storm, with dark, ominous clouds dominating the frame and dwarfing any physical structures or objects below. The scene conveys a sense of the overwhelming scale and power of the natural world.As forecasters predict a quieter hurricane season, the looming threat of powerful storms serves as a reminder of nature's raw, sublime power.Today in Jacksonville

The first outlook from Colorado State University for the 2026 hurricane season suggests the Atlantic basin could see below-average activity, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Forecasters expect the transition to an El Niño pattern to increase wind shear and suppress storm development.

Why it matters

Hurricane forecasts are crucial for coastal communities to prepare for potential threats each season. While a quieter year is expected, a single powerful storm can still cause significant damage, so residents must remain vigilant.

The details

The CSU forecast represents the quietest outlook since 2019, with expectations of 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. This is below the long-term average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The emergence of an El Niño pattern is expected to increase wind shear and reduce water temperatures in the Atlantic, disrupting storm formation and intensity.

  • The first named storm is typically expected around June 20, with the first hurricane around August 11.
  • The 2026 hurricane season outlook was released on April 9, 2026.

The players

Colorado State University

A leading research institution that provides annual hurricane season forecasts.

Phil Klotzbach

A senior research scientist at Colorado State University and the lead author of the 2026 hurricane season report.

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What they’re saying

“So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons. Our analog seasons ranged from well below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to somewhat above average.”

— Phil Klotzbach, Senior Research Scientist, Colorado State University

What’s next

Weather watchers will notice a few subtle changes to forecast products during the upcoming hurricane season, including the forecast cone now including inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, and a slightly smaller forecast cone reflecting improved forecast accuracy.

The takeaway

While forecasters predict a below-average hurricane season, coastal residents must remain vigilant as a single powerful storm can still cause significant damage. The transition to an El Niño pattern is expected to suppress storm development, but hurricane preparedness remains crucial for communities in hurricane-prone regions.