Jacksonville Builders Prepare for 'Normal' Market Conditions in 2026

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After a post-pandemic surge, home building leaders in Northeast Florida say 2026 is returning to more typical market conditions. Scott Brannock, incoming president of the Northeast Florida Builders Association and president of Tidewater Homes, said the focus is shifting from rapid expansion to workforce training and policy improvements. Inventory climbed and prices cooled through 2025, and local real‑estate leaders say the region is settling back to earth after several frothy years.

Why it matters

The change comes after a year of slower price growth and a decline in new-home permits, giving buyers more negotiating leverage. Builders say they cannot speed up construction without more trained tradespeople, so NEFBA is doubling down on apprenticeships and training to address workforce shortages and boost homebuilding.

The details

Fannie Mae's economic outlook projects 30‑year fixed mortgage rates in the low‑6% range next year, which could ease borrowing costs and coax some would‑be buyers back into the hunt. That potential rate relief, paired with higher inventory, helps explain why builders are describing 2026 as a more "normal" year for Northeast Florida housing. Even with cooling prices, builders point to tariffs, rising labor costs and local impact fees as major headwinds, and industry analysis suggests regulation can add roughly a quarter to the price of a new home.

• In December 2025, the median home price across the six‑county area was about $397,000, a slight dip from the year before.
• Single‑family permits fell nearly 30% from 12,551 in 2024 to 8,828 in 2025, the lowest level since 2016.

What they’re saying

What’s next

Permit filings, contested rezoning votes and progress at the NEFBA Workforce Development Center at 4932 Sunbeam Road will be the clearest near‑term signals of whether training and policy changes turn into more homes.