U.S. Imports Projected to Fall Amid Tariff Confusion and Geopolitical Risks

Port Tracker report cites ongoing tariff uncertainty and potential Iran conflict as factors impacting supply chain outlook

Published on Mar. 9, 2026

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According to the latest edition of the Global Port Tracker report, U.S. retail container import volumes are expected to see annual declines over the first half of 2026 due to ongoing tariff-driven uncertainty and the potential impact of the Iran conflict. The report projects a 2.5% drop in imports for the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2025.

Why it matters

The decline in U.S. imports reflects the continued challenges facing global supply chains, as businesses and consumers grapple with the fallout from trade disputes and geopolitical tensions. The report highlights the need for clear and predictable trade policies to enable long-term planning for retailers and other businesses.

The details

The report cites the Supreme Court's ruling against the administration's use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), as well as the announcement of a new 10-15% across-the-board tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This has resulted in confusion for importers and trade partners, with uncertainty around how long the new tariffs will remain in place and the potential for legal challenges.

  • For January 2026, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports came in at 2.08 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), marking a 3.8% gain over December but a 6.4% decline year-over-year.
  • The report projects the following import volumes for the coming months: February at 2.01 million TEU (down 1.3% annually), March at 1.91 million TEU (down 11.2% annually), April at 2.03 million TEU (down 8.1% annually), May at 2.09 million TEU (up 7% annually), June at 2.1 million TEU (up 6.8% annually), and July at 2.2 million TEU (down 8% annually).

The players

National Retail Federation (NRF)

The trade association representing the retail industry in the United States.

Hackett Associates

A maritime consultancy that co-authors the Global Port Tracker report with the NRF.

Jonathan Gold

Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the National Retail Federation.

Ben Hackett

Founder of Hackett Associates.

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What they’re saying

“The Supreme Court's ruling that President Donald Trump can't use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs has resulted in confusion for importers and trade partners alike.”

— Ben Hackett, Founder, Hackett Associates (logisticsmgmt.com)

“The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses. While we agree with holding our trading partners accountable and looking for more domestic manufacturing opportunities, it needs to be understood that tariffs drive up costs for businesses and prices for consumers. They should be used in a strategic manner.”

— Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, National Retail Federation (logisticsmgmt.com)

What’s next

The administration is considering launching new trade investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which could lead to additional tariffs in the future.

The takeaway

The ongoing uncertainty around trade policies and geopolitical risks is creating significant challenges for businesses and consumers, underscoring the need for a more stable and predictable trade environment to support long-term planning and growth.