Prewar US Intel Assessment Found Iran Intervention Unlikely to Change Leadership

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A U.S. intelligence assessment completed shortly before the United States and Israel launched a war in Iran had determined that American military intervention was not likely to lead to regime change in the Islamic Republic, according to two people familiar with the classified report. The National Intelligence Council's assessment concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in Iran, even if the current leadership was killed.

Why it matters

The intelligence assessment's findings undercut the administration's assertion that it could complete its objectives in Iran relatively quickly, as the report concluded there was no powerful or unified opposition coalition poised to take over if the current leadership was killed. This raises questions about the administration's true motivations and whether regime change was actually a goal, despite claims to the contrary.

The details

The intelligence assessment determined that Iran's establishment would attempt to preserve continuity of power if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, with the selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader seen as a sign of resistance from Iran's leadership. The administration has given different justifications for the strikes, citing the need to set back Iran's nuclear weapons program or preempt an Iranian ballistic missile attack, though President Trump has also said he wants to see regime change.

• The National Intelligence Council's assessment was completed in February 2026, shortly before the U.S. and Israel launched a war in Iran.
• The war in Iran began on February 28, 2026.

What’s next

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