Prewar US Intel Assessment Found Intervention in Iran Unlikely to Change Leadership

A classified report concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger military campaign would likely result in a new government in Iran.

Published on Mar. 9, 2026

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A U.S. intelligence assessment completed shortly before the United States and Israel launched a war in Iran had determined that American military intervention was not likely to lead to regime change in the Islamic Republic, according to two people familiar with the classified report. The National Intelligence Council's assessment concluded that no one powerful or unified opposition coalition was poised to take over in Iran if the current leadership was killed.

Why it matters

The intelligence assessment's findings undercut the administration's assertion that it could complete its objectives in Iran relatively quickly, as the report determined that Iran's establishment would attempt to preserve continuity of power even if the current supreme leader was killed.

The details

The assessment concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in Iran, even if the current leadership was killed. It determined that Iran's leading clerics would attempt to preserve continuity of power if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, as evidenced by their selection of his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader.

  • The intelligence assessment was completed in February 2026, shortly before the U.S. and Israel launched a war in Iran.
  • The war in Iran began on February 28, 2026.

The players

National Intelligence Council

The U.S. intelligence assessment was conducted by the National Intelligence Council.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

The former Supreme Leader of Iran, who was killed in the opening salvo of the war.

Mojtaba Khamenei

The son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was chosen as the new Supreme Leader of Iran by Iran's leading clerics.

President Donald Trump

The U.S. president who considered whom he would like to see lead Iran, despite the assessment that intervention was unlikely to result in regime change.

Pete Hegseth

The U.S. Defense Secretary who stated that the war in Iran was not aimed at regime change.

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What’s next

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The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.