NASA Satellite to Burn Up on Fall to Earth

Most of the Van Allen Probe A will incinerate, but some pieces may survive re-entry.

Published on Mar. 10, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A 1,323-pound NASA satellite that has been orbiting Earth for nearly 14 years is expected to re-enter the atmosphere on Tuesday, with most of the Van Allen Probe A set to be incinerated, but some components likely to survive. NASA says the risk of harm to anyone on Earth is low, approximately 1 in 4,200.

Why it matters

The re-entry of the Van Allen Probe A highlights the need to better organize the final fate of rockets and satellites launched by governments and private companies, as the aggregate risk of uncontrolled re-entries is significant.

The details

The U.S. Space Force expects the Van Allen Probe A to re-enter the atmosphere at about 7:45 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, give or take 24 hours. NASA says most of the satellite will be incinerated as it hurtles through the atmosphere at around 17,000 miles per hour, but some components are expected to survive. The agency says the risk of harm to anyone on the ground is low, approximately 1 in 4,200.

  • The Van Allen Probe A is expected to re-enter the atmosphere on Tuesday, March 11, 2026.
  • The satellite has been orbiting Earth for nearly 14 years since its launch in 2012.

The players

Van Allen Probe A

A 1,323-pound NASA satellite that has been orbiting Earth since 2012.

U.S. Space Force

The organization that expects the Van Allen Probe A to re-enter the atmosphere.

Jonathan McDowell

An astrophysicist who retired from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“For the average person, it will be a nice light in the sky if you get lucky and, otherwise, don't worry about it. We have much more scary re-entries that happen. Occasionally, there is a 20-ton Chinese rocket stage that comes down. Those are much scarier for me.”

— Jonathan McDowell, Astrophysicist (The New York Times)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.