Slightly Below-Average Hurricane Season Forecast for Florida in 2026

Colorado State University predicts 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes for the Atlantic basin.

Apr. 9, 2026 at 8:49pm

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A vast, atmospheric landscape painting depicting an approaching hurricane, with dramatic clouds and lighting dwarfing any physical structures or objects in the scene, conveying the overwhelming scale and power of the natural disaster.As the 2026 hurricane season approaches, a sense of foreboding looms over the Florida coastline, a reminder of the raw power of nature and the need for vigilance in the face of unpredictable storms.Boca Raton Today

A leading seasonal hurricane forecast is calling for slightly below normal activity in 2026 as a strong El Niño develops, but the Atlantic Ocean is giving mixed signals. Colorado State University is predicting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes for the upcoming season.

Why it matters

While the forecast indicates a lower probability of a hurricane making landfall in Florida compared to the historical average, the state remains one of the most vulnerable in the U.S. to tropical cyclone impacts. Experts warn against complacency, as it only takes one storm to cause catastrophic damage.

The details

According to the CSU forecast, there is a 74% probability that a named storm will pass within 50 miles of Florida's coast and a 21% chance that a major hurricane could make landfall during the 2026 season. The climatological averages are 86% and 29% respectively. North Carolina has the second highest probability of a named storm coming within 50 miles at 54%, followed by Louisiana at 52%.

  • The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1.
  • The Climate Prediction Center expects a 61% chance of El Niño emerging in the May through July period and persisting through the end of 2026.

The players

Colorado State University

A leading institution that has issued seasonal hurricane forecasts for 43 years.

Climate Prediction Center

A branch of NOAA that will issue its own hurricane forecast on May 21, 2026.

Mike Brennan

Director of the National Hurricane Center, who spoke at the National Hurricane Conference about the importance of hurricane preparedness.

Alex DaSilva

AccuWeather's Lead Hurricane Expert, who emphasized the need for all coastal areas to prepare equally for each hurricane season.

Jeff Berardelli

Meteorologist who forecasted the potential for a "super" or "Jurassic" El Niño event in 2026.

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What they’re saying

“It's really important to emphasize that it doesn't really matter what any seasonal hurricane forecast says, you have to prepare as if you are going to be affected every year because that risk is there.”

— Mike Brennan, Director, National Hurricane Center

“Even if it's expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States.”

— Alex DaSilva, Lead Hurricane Expert, AccuWeather

“You're going to be hearing a ton about El Niño, and one of the reasons is our latest computer run of the European model shows the strongest El Niño on record.”

— Jeff Berardelli, Meteorologist

What’s next

The Climate Prediction Center will issue its official 2026 hurricane forecast on May 21, 2026.

The takeaway

While the 2026 hurricane season is expected to be slightly below average, Florida remains one of the most vulnerable states to tropical cyclone impacts. Experts caution against complacency, emphasizing the need for residents and emergency managers to prepare thoroughly each year, regardless of seasonal forecasts.