CFTC Chair Calls for Specific Political Prediction Market Contracts

Selig says open-ended political wagers could create risks of 'assassination markets'

Mar. 10, 2026 at 2:50pm

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Michael Selig, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said in an interview that political contracts listed on federally-regulated exchanges should be tied to specific events and not open-ended. Selig warned that open-ended political wagers could create risks of 'assassination markets' where people could potentially bet on the outcome of political events in harmful ways.

Why it matters

Prediction markets that allow trading on political events have raised concerns about potential misuse and manipulation. Selig's comments indicate the CFTC is looking to provide more regulatory oversight and guidelines around these types of financial instruments to mitigate risks to the public.

The details

In the interview, Selig said 'When you have a contract around a political event that isn't tethered or tied to, for example, an election, that does create a lot of risk that you could back into becoming an assassination market.' He made these remarks on the sidelines of the Futures Industry Association's annual gathering in Boca Raton, Florida.

  • The interview took place on March 10, 2026.

The players

Michael Selig

The chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the U.S. federal agency that regulates the commodity futures and options markets.

Futures Industry Association

A trade organization for the futures, options and centrally cleared derivatives markets.

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What they’re saying

“When you have a contract around a political event that isn't tethered or tied to, for example, an election, that does create a lot of risk that you could back into becoming an assassination market.”

— Michael Selig, Chairman, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Bloomberg TV)

What’s next

The CFTC is expected to issue new regulations or guidance around political prediction market contracts in the coming months to address the concerns raised by Chairman Selig.

The takeaway

Regulators are increasingly focused on ensuring that political prediction markets operate in a way that mitigates risks to public safety and the integrity of the political process, rather than creating potential avenues for manipulation or harmful speculation.