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Rehoboth Beach Today
By the People, for the People
Diminishing Risk of Iran Attack Seen
Former CIA analyst reflects on concerns over potential conflict two years ago.
Published on Feb. 22, 2026
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Two years ago, there were strong concerns that Iran could launch a major missile attack on Israel, potentially sparking wider regional conflict. However, the author, a former CIA analyst, hesitated to wake President Biden with the intelligence, fearing the situation could spiral out of control and endanger many of his friends stationed at bases that could become targets. The author reflects on the post-9/11 era worries about Iran and the possibility of a U.S. misstep leading to chaos in the region.
Why it matters
The potential for conflict between the U.S. and Iran has long been a major geopolitical concern, with the possibility of an Iranian attack on Israel seen as a potential trigger for wider regional instability and even war. This story provides insight into how those risks were perceived and weighed by intelligence officials during a tense period.
The details
The author, a former CIA analyst, stood outside President Biden's house in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware two years ago with intelligence that Iran was about to launch a major missile barrage on Israel. The author hesitated to wake the president, concerned that the region could spiral into chaos, with many of the author's friends stationed at bases that could become targets.
- Two years ago, the author stood outside President Biden's house with the intelligence.
The players
Marc Gustafson
A former CIA analyst who was concerned about the potential for conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
President Biden
The President of the United States who the author considered waking with the intelligence about a potential Iranian missile attack on Israel.
The takeaway
This story highlights the delicate balance intelligence officials must strike when weighing the risks of potential conflicts, especially in volatile regions like the Middle East. It provides a window into the concerns and calculations that go into high-stakes national security decisions.
