Ceasefire Deal Fails to Resolve Fallout From Iran War's Impact on Global Agriculture

Disruptions to energy and fertilizer flows continue to roil the agricultural sector worldwide.

Apr. 10, 2026 at 8:19pm

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A conceptual illustration in the style of the Bauhaus artist Herbert Bayer, featuring bold geometric shapes in shades of blue, yellow, and red to represent the disruption to global agricultural supply chains caused by the Iran war's impact on energy and fertilizer flows.The Iran war's ripple effects continue to roil global agriculture, with disruptions to energy and fertilizer flows squeezing farmers worldwide.Washington Today

Even with a ceasefire deal in place between the U.S. and Iran, the fallout from the war's impact on global energy and fertilizer supplies continues to reverberate through the agricultural sector. Traffic at the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, sending shockwaves through the production and export of key commodities like urea fertilizer. Experts warn that it could take months to restore normal energy production levels, further squeezing farmers with higher costs for fuel, transportation, and fertilizers at a time when many agricultural prices are already low.

Why it matters

The Iran war's disruption of energy and fertilizer flows is having far-reaching consequences for global food security and agricultural communities worldwide. Farmers are facing sharply higher input costs just as many crop prices remain depressed, squeezing their margins. This is leading to protests, government interventions, and warnings of potential hunger crises, especially in vulnerable regions like sub-Saharan Africa that rely heavily on imported fertilizers and fuel.

The details

Even with a tentative ceasefire in place, the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear, with both the U.S. and Iran offering conflicting statements about access and control of the strategic waterway. This uncertainty is leaving shipping companies and traders hesitant to resume normal operations. Analysts estimate it could take months to fully restore Middle East energy production to pre-war levels, prolonging the squeeze on the agricultural sector that relies heavily on energy for everything from transportation to fertilizer production.

  • The Iran war and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz began more than a month ago.
  • A ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran was announced recently.
  • High-stakes negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are scheduled for this weekend.

The players

Donald Trump

The former U.S. president who has lashed out at Iran on social media over the status of the Strait of Hormuz.

Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber

The head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, who has stated that the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted and controlled.

Christopher Barrett

An agricultural economist at Cornell University who warns that landlocked, maize-dependent countries in sub-Saharan Africa could be hit hardest by the war's impact on global food security.

Joseph Glauber

A former chief economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture who is now at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Kevin Book

The managing director of ClearView Energy Partners, a consultancy, who notes the far-reaching inflationary consequences of rising diesel prices.

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What they’re saying

“Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!”

— Donald Trump

“Shipping companies and shippers are waiting for more clarity from the U.S. and from Iran about what exactly they agreed to.”

— Caitlin Welsh, Director of the Global Food and Water Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies

“There's a lot of energy embodied in food at almost every stage of processing and transportation to get it from the farm to retail.”

— Joseph Glauber, Former Chief Economist, U.S. Department of Agriculture

“Everything we buy more or less moves on a truck or a train once it comes in from the coast, and so the inflationary consequences of rising diesel prices are far-reaching.”

— Kevin Book, Managing Director, ClearView Energy Partners

“Sharp increases in oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, together with transport bottlenecks, will inevitably lead to rising food prices and food insecurity.”

— Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Chief

What’s next

High-stakes negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are scheduled for this weekend, where the two sides are expected to try to reach a more durable agreement on the status of the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of energy and trade flows.

The takeaway

The fallout from the Iran war's disruption of global energy and fertilizer supplies continues to reverberate through the agricultural sector, underscoring the fragility of the global food system. Farmers are facing sharply higher input costs at a time when many crop prices remain depressed, squeezing their margins and raising the specter of potential hunger crises, especially in vulnerable regions. Resolving the uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz will be crucial to restoring normal operations and stabilizing prices.