White House Warns Staff Against Insider Trading on War Prediction Markets

Suspicious trades occurred just before Trump's Iran ceasefire announcement.

Apr. 9, 2026 at 11:09pm

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A dynamic, fragmented painting of an abstract financial chart, with overlapping geometric shapes and lines in shades of blue, grey, and red, conveying a sense of rapid movement and volatility.Suspicious trading activity around a major geopolitical announcement raises concerns about insider knowledge and exploitation of sensitive government information.Washington Today

The White House quietly warned its own staff not to use insider knowledge to place bets on prediction markets, according to a new report. Just hours after President Donald Trump announced a sudden pause of strikes against Iran, the White House Management Office fired off a staff-wide email warning employees against leveraging their positions for well-timed bets in futures markets. This came after more than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts changed hands in less than two minutes, about 15 minutes before Trump announced the policy shift.

Why it matters

The timing of the suspicious trades has raised concerns about potential insider trading and exploitation of sensitive government information for personal gain. This scandal echoes similar incidents involving prediction markets related to political events and military actions, which have prompted calls for legislation to ban such markets entirely.

The details

Three accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket earned more than $600,000 by correctly betting on the timing of the Iran ceasefire announcement. The White House insisted there is no evidence of leaks, but Trump allies have criticized the situation as 'disgusting' and a 'breeding ground for corruption and exploitation'.

  • On March 23, President Trump announced a sudden pause of strikes against Iran.
  • Just prior to Trump's announcement, more than $760 million worth of oil futures contracts changed hands in less than two minutes.

The players

Donald Trump

The President of the United States who announced the Iran ceasefire.

Davis Ingle

A spokesman for President Trump who called reports of insider trading 'baseless and irresponsible'.

Tom Ellsworth

A Trump ally who criticized the situation on the Trump-friendly PBD Podcast, calling it 'disgusting' and suggesting a 'circle of people' in government must have known what the 'president was going to say'.

Andy Kim

A Democratic Senator from New Jersey who called the situation a breeding ground for 'corruption and exploitation' and has pushed legislation to ban prediction markets related to war.

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What they’re saying

“It is disgusting. I suspect a circle of people in government must have known what the president was going to say. The timing certainly stinks.”

— Tom Ellsworth, Trump Ally

“This is a breeding ground for corruption and exploitation.”

— Andy Kim, U.S. Senator

What’s next

The White House has promised a full investigation into the suspicious trading activity, and lawmakers are expected to hold hearings on the use of prediction markets for political and military events.

The takeaway

This incident highlights the potential for abuse and insider trading when sensitive government information is leveraged for personal financial gain. It has reignited calls for stricter regulations and oversight of prediction markets, particularly those related to national security and geopolitical events.