U.S. Intel Warns Iran Has No Incentive to Reopen Hormuz as Oil Leverage Grows

Recent intelligence reports suggest Iran is unlikely to surrender control of the vital oil chokepoint anytime soon.

Apr. 4, 2026 at 9:06am

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A fractured, abstract painting in shades of blue and violet, with overlapping geometric shapes and waves of color representing the disruption of oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.A fractured, geometric painting captures the disruption of oil tanker traffic through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, as Iran leverages its control of the chokepoint.Washington Today

Recent U.S. intelligence reports warn that Iran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz any time soon because its grip on the world's most vital oil artery provides the only real leverage it has over the United States. The finding suggests that Tehran could continue to throttle the strait to keep energy prices high as a means of pressuring the U.S. to find a quick off-ramp to the nearly five-week-long war that remains unpopular with U.S. voters.

Why it matters

Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint, gives it significant leverage over the U.S. and its allies. By restricting passage through the strait, Iran can drive up energy prices and disrupt the global economy, putting pressure on the U.S. to seek a resolution to the ongoing conflict on terms favorable to Iran.

The details

Iran has used various tactics to make commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz too dangerous or uninsurable, including attacking civilian vessels, releasing mines, and demanding passage fees. This has effectively blocked traffic through the strait, sending world oil prices soaring to multi-year highs and causing fuel shortages in countries reliant on Gulf oil and gas. The U.S. faces considerable risks in attempting a military operation to reopen the waterway, as the strait is only 2 miles wide in both directions, making ships and troops easy targets for Iran's drones and missiles.

  • The nearly five-week-long war between the U.S. and Iran began on February 28, 2026.
  • On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump appeared to suggest that he could order U.S. forces to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The players

Donald Trump

The President of the United States, who has sought to downplay the difficulty of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and has made ending Iran's chokehold a ceasefire precondition, but has also called on Gulf oil-dependent countries and NATO allies to take the lead in reopening it.

Ali Vaez

The director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, a conflict-prevention organization, who said that Iran understands its ability to drive world energy markets through its chokehold on the strait 'is much more potent than even a nuclear weapon.'

Bill Burns

The former CIA Director, who said that even after the war, Iran is unlikely to give up its ability to regulate traffic through the Strait of Hormuz because it will need to rebuild, and charging commercial shipping passage fees would be one means of raising reconstruction funds.

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What they’re saying

“In the attempt to try to prevent Iran from developing a weapon of mass destruction, the U.S. handed Iran a weapon of mass disruption.”

— Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group

“It is certainly the case that now that Iran has tasted its power and leverage over the strait, it won't soon give it up.”

— Anonymous, Source familiar with U.S. intelligence reports

“All it takes to disrupt traffic and deter vessels from passing through is one or two drones.”

— Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group

What’s next

The U.S. and its allies will likely need to engage in complex negotiations with Iran to find a diplomatic solution that addresses Iran's need for economic recovery and security guarantees, while also ensuring the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

The takeaway

Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz has given it significant leverage over the U.S. and its allies, and the country is unlikely to relinquish that leverage easily. This underscores the challenges the U.S. faces in trying to resolve the conflict and restore the free flow of oil through the vital global chokepoint.