US Consumer Confidence Rises, but Job Openings and Hiring Drop Sharply

Lingering trade and immigration policy uncertainty undercuts labor market demand and supply

Apr. 1, 2026 at 10:05am

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U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly edged up in March, but households remained downbeat on the labor market and anticipated higher inflation amid surging gasoline prices and tariff pass-through. Job openings fell sharply in February, with hiring tumbling to a six-year low, as economists say lingering policy uncertainty has undercut labor demand and supply.

Why it matters

The drop in job openings and hiring signals growing caution among businesses as rising fuel and consumer prices weigh on the economy. This could signal a broader slowdown in the labor market and broader economic activity, with potential impacts on consumer spending, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.

The details

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose 0.8 point to 91.8 in March, though consumers' 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 5.2%, the highest since May 2025. Job openings fell by 358,000 to 6.882 million in February, with sharp declines in sectors like accommodation, food services, manufacturing, and construction. Hiring tumbled by 498,000 to 4.849 million, the lowest level since March 2020 and August 2014 outside the pandemic. Economists say lingering uncertainty from President Trump's trade and immigration policies has undercut labor demand and supply, hampering the job market.

  • The Conference Board released its March consumer confidence data on April 1, 2026.
  • The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for February 2026 was released on April 1, 2026.

The players

The Conference Board

A non-profit research organization that publishes leading economic indicators, including the consumer confidence index.

Christopher Rupkey

Chief economist at FWDBONDS, an economic research firm.

Dana Peterson

Chief economist at The Conference Board.

President Donald Trump

The former U.S. president whose trade and immigration policies are cited as contributing to labor market uncertainty.

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What they’re saying

“This is not a good omen for the health and vitality of the labor market. Companies have grown more cautious as the price of gasoline has risen over a dollar a gallon since the war began, and consumers have become much less confident.”

— Christopher Rupkey, Chief economist at FWDBONDS

“Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers' minds.”

— Dana Peterson, Chief economist at The Conference Board

What’s next

The Labor Department will release its March 2026 payrolls report on Friday, April 4, 2026, which will provide further insight into the health of the U.S. labor market.

The takeaway

The sharp drop in job openings and hiring, coupled with rising consumer inflation expectations, suggests the U.S. economy may be facing headwinds from high energy prices and lingering policy uncertainty. This could lead to a broader slowdown in economic activity and potentially impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.