Iran Threatens Retaliation for Potential U.S. Attack on Kharg Island

Experts warn of escalating conflict if U.S. troops invade Iran's vital oil export hub

Mar. 30, 2026 at 12:04pm

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As tensions escalate between the U.S. and Iran, experts warn that any U.S. military action to seize control of Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran's crude exports, would likely trigger a major escalation in the conflict. Iran has a range of potential retaliatory measures at its disposal, including direct attacks on U.S. troops, strikes on Gulf oil infrastructure, stepped-up proxy attacks, and attempts to disrupt global energy markets by closing strategic waterways like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Why it matters

Kharg Island is a vital economic lifeline for Iran, and any U.S. attempt to seize control of it would be seen as an existential threat by Tehran. This could lead to a dangerous cycle of escalation, with Iran lashing out in ways that could further destabilize the region and disrupt global energy supplies.

The details

According to experts, Iran could respond to a U.S. invasion of Kharg Island in several ways: launching direct attacks on U.S. troops using drones, missiles, and booby traps; striking oil and energy infrastructure across the Gulf region; ramping up attacks by Iranian proxy forces in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen; and attempting to close strategic waterways like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to disrupt global energy markets. Iran's large military and the presence of Revolutionary Guard forces on Kharg Island could also turn any U.S. occupation into a prolonged counter-insurgency battle.

  • In late February 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a major air campaign against Iran, dropping over 22,000 bombs and missiles.
  • On March 25, 2026, Iran warned it would escalate "insecurity" in other strategic waterways like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the U.S. and Israel continued attacking its energy infrastructure.

The players

Bryan Clark

A senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who specializes in defense and national security issues.

Joe Costa

A former Pentagon official who helped oversee war planning during the Biden administration and is now with the Atlantic Council, a Washington, D.C. think tank.

Jason Campbell

A senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who focuses on defense and foreign policy.

Jon Hoffman

A research fellow in defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute.

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What they’re saying

“You'll see some on the ground resistance, actual full arms fire. I imagine they've also booby-trapped it. For U.S. troops go out there I imagine there's a fair number of IEDs and other surprises waiting for them because the perspective of the Iranians is once the U.S. tries to take it, then their not going to be getting production back anytime soon they might as well create some casualties for the U.S. and a political problem for Trump back home.”

— Bryan Clark, Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute

“How much capacity they have to do this over time, that remains unclear, but the fact that they are successfully striking infrastructure in the region . . . indicates that their command and control structure is still functioning.”

— Joe Costa, Former Pentagon Official

“I would suspect that would absolutely be part of their reaction.”

— Jason Campbell, Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute

“The Iraqi militias have actually shown a willingness to get more involved in the conflict. Hezbollah has shown an ability to still launch missiles at Israel.”

— Jon Hoffman, Research Fellow, Cato Institute

What’s next

The U.S. and Iran appear to be on a collision course, with both sides warning of escalating retaliation. The situation remains highly volatile, and the potential for miscalculation or unintended consequences is high. In the coming days and weeks, the world will be watching closely to see if either side takes further provocative actions that could trigger a wider regional conflict.

The takeaway

This crisis highlights the fragility of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the potential for even limited military actions to spiral out of control. Both the U.S. and Iran seem determined to project strength, but the risks of a direct confrontation that could devastate the global economy are immense. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions and find a peaceful resolution will be crucial in the days ahead.