Fed Official Warns of Economic 'Fog'

Barkin says uncertainty clouds outlook as AI and Iran tensions impact recovery

Mar. 30, 2026 at 1:55pm

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A top Federal Reserve official warned that the economic outlook remains obscured by a 'fog' of uncertainty, citing the ongoing impact of the U.S. conflict with Iran and the rapid spread of artificial intelligence technology as key factors clouding the recovery.

Why it matters

The Fed's assessment of the economic landscape is crucial for setting monetary policy, and Barkin's comments suggest policymakers may be hesitant to raise interest rates further amid the prevailing uncertainty.

The details

In remarks at a conference, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the economy faces 'a lot of fog' that is making it difficult to discern the path forward. He pointed to the lingering effects of the U.S. war with Iran, which has disrupted global energy markets, as well as the rapid adoption of AI technology that is transforming industries and labor markets.

  • Barkin made the comments on March 30, 2026 at an economic conference in Washington, D.C.

The players

Thomas Barkin

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets U.S. monetary policy.

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What they’re saying

“There's a lot of fog out there that makes it hard to see the path forward clearly.”

— Thomas Barkin, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

The takeaway

Barkin's comments underscore the challenges facing the Fed as it navigates an economic landscape clouded by geopolitical tensions and rapid technological change, complicating the central bank's efforts to steer the economy towards stable growth and low inflation.