Big Short Legend Warns Iran War Dominates Stock Market

Steve Eisman says the conflict is the only factor moving stocks right now, as prediction markets see prolonged disruption to global oil flows.

Mar. 30, 2026 at 7:52pm

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

Steve Eisman, the portfolio manager made famous by 'The Big Short,' says the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran is the sole driver of the stock market right now. Eisman told his podcast listeners that the war has become a 'unipolar market,' reversing his earlier optimism about the conflict's impact. Prediction markets point to a prolonged disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint for crude shipments.

Why it matters

The Iran conflict has become the dominant factor shaping global financial markets, overshadowing other economic fundamentals. Prolonged tensions and supply chain disruptions could push oil prices higher, stoke inflation, and increase the risk of a recession - all of which would have major implications for investors, consumers, and policymakers.

The details

Brent crude oil prices have surged 55% in March, the largest monthly gain on record, as the war in Iran continues. Bettors on prediction markets give 71% odds that U.S. forces will enter Iran by the end of April, signaling a potential escalation. Traders also see little chance of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, returning to normal operations before June. Eisman's guest, Council on Foreign Relations fellow Steven Cook, warned that Iran is building a new transit regime in the Strait that would be 'a total disaster for the United States.'

  • Brent crude oil prices surged 55% in March, the largest monthly gain on record.
  • Prediction markets give 71% odds that U.S. forces will enter Iran by April 30.
  • Odds of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal operations before June 1 sit at just 47%.

The players

Steve Eisman

A portfolio manager made famous for his successful bets against the U.S. housing market prior to the 2008 financial crisis, as portrayed in the film 'The Big Short'.

Steven Cook

A senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, who provided expert analysis to Eisman on the implications of the Iran conflict.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“The Iran war is the only thing moving stocks right now.”

— Steve Eisman, Portfolio Manager

“Any deal that locks in Iran's new transit regime in the Strait of Hormuz is a total disaster for the United States.”

— Steven Cook, Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies

What’s next

Investors will be closely watching for any signs of further escalation in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the impact on global oil supplies and prices. Policymakers may need to consider steps to mitigate the economic fallout from the crisis.

The takeaway

The Iran conflict has become the dominant driver of financial markets, overshadowing other economic factors. Prolonged tensions and disruptions to global oil flows could have far-reaching consequences for investors, consumers, and policymakers alike.