Options Market Signals Rising Risk of $150 Oil Amid Hormuz Closure

Traders bet on Brent crude hitting record high as Middle East conflict chokes supply

Mar. 26, 2026 at 10:33pm

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The options market is showing a significant increase in bets that Brent crude oil will surge to at least $150 per barrel by the end of April, nearly 10 times higher than a month ago. This comes as the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has effectively blocked oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz, trapping roughly one-fifth of the world's daily oil supply in the Gulf region. Analysts warn that $150 oil would cause a demand shock, but as long as the Strait remains closed, there are risks of outright supply shortages.

Why it matters

The options market activity reflects growing concerns about the potential for oil prices to spike to record highs due to the supply disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for oil shipments. A sustained period of $150 oil or higher would have significant economic and geopolitical implications, potentially leading to demand destruction, inflationary pressures, and heightened tensions between major powers.

The details

Data from ICE Futures shows that open interest in $150 call options for Brent crude expiring at the end of April has risen to nearly 29,000 contracts, up from just 3,374 a month ago. There is also growing interest in even higher strike prices, with 14,676 lots in $160 calls and smaller positions in $200-$240 and even $300 calls. However, the largest open interest remains in $100 call options, suggesting a wide range of potential outcomes is being priced in by traders.

  • The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28, 2026, effectively blocking oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Brent crude oil prices have risen nearly 50% since February 28, 2026, currently trading around $107 per barrel for May delivery.

The players

Brent Crude

The global benchmark for crude oil prices, which is currently trading around $107 per barrel for May delivery.

United States

A key player in the ongoing conflict with Iran that has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel

A U.S. ally involved in the conflict with Iran that has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran

A country involved in the conflict with the U.S. and Israel that has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Tim Skirrow

Head of derivatives and energy at Energy Aspects, a research firm.

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What they’re saying

“These calls are clear signs that investors see tail risk outcomes to the current conflict and are increasingly trying to manage those outcomes.”

— Tim Skirrow, Head of derivatives and energy at Energy Aspects

“$150 a barrel oil will certainly cause a demand shock but as long as oil cannot flow out of the Gulf there will be risks of outright shortages.”

— Tim Skirrow, Head of derivatives and energy at Energy Aspects

The takeaway

The options market activity reflects growing concerns about the potential for oil prices to spike to record highs due to the supply disruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for oil shipments. A sustained period of $150 oil or higher would have significant economic and geopolitical implications, potentially leading to demand destruction, inflationary pressures, and heightened tensions between major powers.