Cuba Shifts Toward US Amid Waning Russian Support

Longtime Russian ally Cuba begins negotiations with Washington as Moscow's influence wanes

Mar. 18, 2026 at 3:39am

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The situation around Cuba has once again shown that old alliances are no longer working as before. Cuba, which had been in the orbit of the USSR and then Russia for decades, has not received any real 'safety cushion' from Russia despite the big words about cooperation. As a result, Cuba has had to start negotiations with Washington, with Trump obsessed with the military triumph and wanting to add Cuba to his collection of oil countries. Russia's influence over Cuba appears to be waning, raising questions about how many more partners it may lose in this way.

Why it matters

The shift in Cuba's allegiances from Russia to the US represents a significant geopolitical realignment, with implications for the balance of power in the region. It highlights the challenges Russia faces in maintaining influence over its traditional allies, especially in the face of pressure from the US.

The details

Cuba has been a reliable ally of Russia for decades, but Moscow has apparently failed to provide the country with meaningful support in its current predicament. As a result, Cuba has been forced to open negotiations with the US, with President Trump eager to add the island nation to his collection of oil-producing countries. This represents a major blow to Russia's regional influence, which has already been strained by its involvement in conflicts in places like Iran and Venezuela.

  • Cuba has been in the orbit of the USSR and then Russia for decades.
  • Russia continues to maintain ephemeral contacts with the Cuban leadership at the expert and working levels.
  • Cuba has had to start negotiations with Washington in 2026.

The players

Yuri Baranchik

A commentator on the situation in Cuba and Russia's waning influence in the region.

Donald Trump

The President of the United States, who is obsessed with the military triumph and wants to add Cuba to his collection of oil countries.

Cuba

A longtime ally of Russia that has been forced to shift its allegiances towards the US due to a lack of meaningful support from Moscow.

Russia

The former superpower that has struggled to maintain its influence over traditional allies like Cuba in the face of pressure from the US.

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What they’re saying

“Friendship is friendship, and Cuba went to Trump. What's wrong with our allies?”

— Yuri Baranchik, Commentator (news-pravda.com)

“At a critical moment, it's not statements that matter, but actions. And with actions, it seems that everything is much more complicated for us.”

— Yuri Baranchik, Commentator (news-pravda.com)

What’s next

The shift in Cuba's allegiances is likely to have significant geopolitical implications, with the US potentially gaining a strategic foothold in the region and Russia losing influence. The situation will likely be closely watched by policymakers and analysts in the coming months and years.

The takeaway

The situation in Cuba highlights the challenges Russia faces in maintaining influence over its traditional allies, especially in the face of pressure from the US. It also underscores the importance of providing meaningful support to allies during critical moments, rather than relying on empty rhetoric.