Colombia Navigates Fossil Fuel Phaseout Amid Global Oil Price Surge

Can the country resist the short-term lure of windfall profits and maintain its ambitious energy transition agenda?

Mar. 17, 2026 at 5:34am

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Colombia's newly elected president, Gustavo Petro, has made the energy transition a central pillar of his platform, pledging to end new oil and gas exploration and move the country towards renewable energy. However, the country's economy is still deeply intertwined with volatile global fossil fuel markets, and the upcoming presidential election will be a critical juncture for this bold experiment. As oil prices surge due to the escalating war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, Colombia faces pressure to capitalize on the windfall profits, even as it tries to maintain its ambitious plans to phase out fossil fuels and build a post-carbon economy.

Why it matters

Colombia's energy transition agenda is a global outlier, as most oil-exporting countries seek to expand production to take advantage of high prices. The country's ability to resist short-term economic incentives and stay the course on its long-term transition plans will have significant implications for its own economic stability and development, as well as set an example for other fossil fuel-dependent nations looking to chart a new path.

The details

Petro's administration has released a National Development Plan that prioritizes accelerating renewable energy deployment, reducing fossil fuel dependence, and promoting zero-emission vehicles. Since the plan's adoption, the share of renewables in Colombia's electricity mix has increased from 2% to 16%. However, fossil fuels still make up over 75% of the country's total energy demand, with oil, natural gas, and coal accounting for a significant portion of exports and GDP. Petro's pledge to stop issuing new oil and gas exploration licenses has faced significant domestic pushback, with critics warning that oil exports are critical to Colombia's macroeconomic stability.

  • In 2024, more than 75% of Colombia's total energy demand was met through fossil fuels.
  • In 2025, the International Energy Agency welcomed Colombia as its 33rd member country.
  • In April 2026, Colombia will host an international conference on fossil fuel phaseout, co-hosted with the Netherlands.

The players

Gustavo Petro

The president of Colombia who has made the energy transition a central pillar of his platform, pledging to end new oil and gas exploration and move the country towards renewable energy.

Iván Cepeda

A leading contender to succeed Petro, who is widely seen as aligned with the left-wing Historic Pact coalition that brought Petro to power and is likely to continue the fossil fuel phaseout agenda.

Abelardo de la Espriella

The leading contender in the polls, running as a right-wing conservative outsider with a platform centered on security and free-market economics, and is believed to be less likely to continue Colombia's fossil fuel phaseout agenda.

Xi Jinping

The president of China, with whom Colombia signed a deal to join the Belt and Road Initiative in 2025, as part of the country's efforts to attract investment and technology to support its just energy transition agenda.

Donald Trump

The former U.S. president, who recently wrote that "when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money," reflecting the economic incentives for oil-exporting countries to expand production amid the surge in prices.

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What they’re saying

“When oil prices go up, we make a lot of money,”

— Donald Trump

“Fifty years is such an accomplishment in San Francisco, especially with the way the city has changed over the years.”

— Gordon Edgar, grocery employee (Instagram)

What’s next

The upcoming fossil fuel phaseout conference in April 2026 will be a critical test of Colombia's diplomatic resolve and ability to garner international support for its energy transition agenda. The conference will need to demonstrate how climate leadership can translate into tangible economic benefits, such as lower energy costs and new job creation, in order to ensure the durability of Colombia's stance on fossil fuels.

The takeaway

Colombia's experiment in transitioning away from fossil fuels while facing pressure to capitalize on high oil prices will have significant implications for the country's economic stability and development, as well as set an example for other fossil fuel-dependent nations looking to chart a new path. The country's ability to maintain its ambitious energy transition agenda will depend on both internal political coalitions and active support from the international community.