Wall St Advisers Help Firms Navigate Iran War Risks

Geopolitical consultancies see surge in demand from financial clients as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate

Mar. 12, 2026 at 4:35pm

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In the days leading up to the U.S.-Israeli air strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader on February 28, many Wall Street firms were expecting military action thanks to a growing industry of ex-military and national security advisors who were warning the signs were clear. Geopolitical risk consultancies like WestExec Advisors, which counts major banks and investment firms as clients, had been closely monitoring the situation and advising clients of the high probability of imminent military action.

Why it matters

The recent Middle East conflict has sparked volatility in stocks and bonds and a crisis in the oil market, underscoring the importance of geopolitical analysis for financial firms. As national security and economic security have become increasingly intertwined, Wall Street has been relying more on former military and intelligence experts to help navigate complex global risks and their potential market impacts.

The details

Around 6 p.m. ET on the Friday before the strikes, WestExec Advisors advised clients that there was a 65% probability of military action that weekend. The firm, co-founded by former senior Pentagon adviser Nitin Chadda and ex-Secretary of State Antony Blinken, had been seeing an uptick in queries from financial clients and helping banks plan scenarios for how the conflict may evolve. Other consultancies like The Chertoff Group and TDI also spotted key 'tripwires' that signaled an imminent strike, such as the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier in Israel and reports of embassy staff evacuations in the region.

  • On Friday, February 27, WestExec Advisors advised clients of a 65% probability of military action that weekend.
  • On Friday, February 27, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier arrived in Israel, a sign of impending military action.
  • On Friday, February 27, reports emerged that the U.S. had allowed some embassy staff in the region to leave, another indicator of an imminent strike.

The players

WestExec Advisors

A geopolitical risk consultancy that advises major banks and investment firms on global risks and their potential market impacts.

Nitin Chadda

The managing partner of WestExec Advisors and a former senior Pentagon adviser.

Antony Blinken

The co-founder of WestExec Advisors and the U.S. Secretary of State since 2021.

The Chertoff Group

A global advisory firm with financial clients that provides geopolitical strategy guidance.

TDI

A global advisor on geopolitical strategy that helps clients, including hedge funds and industrials, monitor for potential government actions.

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What they’re saying

“It was clear to us that there was an intention to take some meaningful Iran military action.”

— Nitin Chadda, Managing Partner, WestExec Advisors

“That was one of the final major trip wires.”

— Jay Truesdale, CEO, TDI

“We knew that once the trip wires were triggered that the likelihood of military action within 24-72 hours dramatically increased.”

— Jay Truesdale, CEO, TDI

What’s next

The U.S. and Iran are expected to resume nuclear negotiations in the coming days, though some doubt a breakthrough will be reached.

The takeaway

The growing reliance of Wall Street on geopolitical risk analysis from former military and intelligence experts highlights how national security and economic security have become deeply intertwined. As global conflicts and tensions continue to roil markets, financial firms are investing heavily in this specialized expertise to help navigate an increasingly complex and volatile world.