Trump's Iran War Threatens GOP's 'Economic Win' on Gas Prices

Republicans worry rising oil prices from the conflict could undermine their midterm election message.

Published on Mar. 10, 2026

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President Donald Trump's decision to join Israel in a war against Iran has led to a spike in oil prices, threatening to undermine the Republican party's midterm election message centered on Trump's record of low gas prices. GOP strategists and lawmakers are concerned the price hikes at the pump could negate what they viewed as a key 'economic win' for the party.

Why it matters

Trump had been touting low gas prices as a key part of his economic record, but the sudden price surge due to the conflict with Iran risks taking away that talking point for Republicans heading into the midterm elections. Democrats see an 'easy story' to tell voters about blaming Trump for the economic fallout.

The details

Oil prices spiked to levels not seen since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, with prices at the pump jumping nearly 50 cents higher than a week ago. While the White House insists the price hikes will be temporary, lingering increases would present another challenge for Republicans in a less-than-favorable political environment.

  • On March 10, 2026, oil prices spiked to almost $120 per barrel before dropping to under $90 by the end of the day.
  • Prices at the pump jumped nearly 50 cents higher than a week ago.

The players

Donald Trump

The 79-year-old former president who is making Democratic strategists' jobs easier and creating a major headache for Republicans seeking election this November.

Neera Tanden

A senior White House official under President Biden who now leads the left-leaning Center for American Progress, stating that Republicans 'only have one person to blame and that is the president of the United States'.

Mitchell Brown

A GOP pollster who said 'Gas was one thing that they have been touting as an economic win' and 'A reversal on that obviously makes the message harder'.

Steve Daines

A Republican senator from Montana who said 'This will start to calm down as this conflict is resolved I'm confident it will be resolved'.

Matt Walsh

A right-wing influencer who warned Trump's comments about the price hikes 'aren't helping anything'.

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What they’re saying

“They only have one person to blame and that is the president of the United States.”

— Neera Tanden, Senior White House official under Biden, now leads Center for American Progress (rawstory.com)

“Gas was one thing that they have been touting as an economic win. A reversal on that obviously makes the message harder.”

— Mitchell Brown, GOP pollster (rawstory.com)

“This will start to calm down as this conflict is resolved I'm confident it will be resolved.”

— Steve Daines, Republican senator from Montana (rawstory.com)

“if they rise, they rise”

— Donald Trump (rawstory.com)

“aren't helping anything”

— Matt Walsh, Right-wing influencer (rawstory.com)

What’s next

The judge in the case will decide on Tuesday whether or not to allow Walker Reed Quinn out on bail.

The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.