Rise of Mojtaba Khamenei Shows Iran's Resilience

The Islamic Republic is more durable than many policymakers assume, despite economic crisis and social unrest.

Published on Mar. 10, 2026

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The rise of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to the position of supreme leader following his father's death shows that the Islamic Republic of Iran possesses institutional mechanisms that allow it to absorb external shocks and maintain political continuity. This succession represents the formalization of an existing balance of power within the Iranian political system, with the growing dominance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) playing a key role.

Why it matters

This resilience is essential for American policymakers to understand, as much of the debate in Washington has implicitly assumed that the Islamic Republic is fragile and that sufficient external pressure might eventually trigger regime change. The evidence now suggests this assumption may be fundamentally flawed.

The details

According to a reported assessment by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC), even extensive military strikes are unlikely to produce regime collapse or bring opposition forces to power in Iran. Several factors underpin this conclusion, including Iran's political system containing institutional mechanisms designed to ensure continuity in times of crisis, and the opposition remaining fragmented and organizationally weak.

  • On February 28, Iran was attacked by Israel and the United States.
  • Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Assembly of Experts convened and quickly selected Mojtaba Khamenei as his successor.

The players

Mojtaba Khamenei

The son of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was quickly selected as the new supreme leader following his father's death.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

The late Supreme Leader of Iran whose death triggered the succession process.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

Iran's powerful security institution that has become the central pillar of Iran's national security architecture and wields significant political and economic influence.

Reza Pahlavi

The son of the deposed shah of Iran, who lives in exile in the United States and is seen as an unlikely alternative to the current regime.

Mohammed Ayoob

A university distinguished professor emeritus of International Relations at Michigan State University and a senior fellow at the Center for Global Policy, who authored this analysis.

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What they’re saying

“The Islamic Republic of Iran, despite economic crisis, social unrest, and now the devastation of war, possesses institutional mechanisms that allow it to absorb external shocks and maintain political continuity.”

— Mohammed Ayoob, University Distinguished Professor Emeritus of International Relations, Michigan State University (nationalinterest.org)

What’s next

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The takeaway

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