GOP Faces 'Disastrous' Midterms If Iran War Drags On, Rand Paul Warns

Senator says high gas prices, military campaign could doom Republicans in 2026 elections

Published on Mar. 10, 2026

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Sen. Rand Paul, a longtime critic of foreign interventionism, warned that Republicans are headed for a 'disastrous' midterm election cycle if the military conflict with Iran continues. Paul cited the potential for rising oil and gas prices, as well as the unpopularity of the ongoing 'kinetic action' against Iran, as major political risks for the GOP.

Why it matters

The midterm elections are a crucial test for the Republican Party, which is already seen as the underdog due to historical trends of the party in power losing seats. A protracted conflict with Iran and its impact on energy prices could further damage the GOP's electoral prospects.

The details

Paul highlighted polling showing Republicans trailing Democrats on the generic congressional ballot, as well as the potential for oil prices to surge past $100 per barrel if the conflict disrupts supply through the Strait of Hormuz. He warned that such high energy prices would be a 'disastrous' development for Republicans just months before the midterms.

  • The military campaign against Iran, known as Operation Epic Fury, began on February 28, 2026.
  • Gas prices nationally have risen from under $3 per gallon before the conflict to an average of $3.54 as of early March 2026.

The players

Sen. Rand Paul

A Republican senator from Kentucky and longtime critic of foreign interventionism.

President Trump

The former president who warned Iran that it would face severe retaliation if it disrupts oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Chris Wright

The U.S. Energy Secretary who expressed confidence that gas prices would soon drop back below $3 per gallon.

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What they’re saying

“If you add in high gas prices, high oil prices, and if we are still bombing Iran with kinetic action — people don't want to call it war — if there's still kinetic action that causes oil to be over $100, I think you're going to see a disastrous election.”

— Sen. Rand Paul (Fox Business Network)

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far. We will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again – Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them – But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!”

— President Trump (Truth Social)

“The Trump administration has been all in on lowering energy prices, and I would say quite successfully. We have seen a dramatic decline in gasoline prices, in diesel prices. Soon, you will see it in electricity prices as well. We want it [gas prices] back below $3 a gallon. And it will be again before too long.”

— Chris Wright, U.S. Energy Secretary (CNN)

What’s next

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The takeaway

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