Heat Waves Fueling Droughts Accelerate Globally, Study Finds

Researchers see alarming rise in 'flash droughts' triggered by heat waves in recent decades.

Published on Mar. 7, 2026

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A new study has found that heat waves leading to sudden and damaging droughts are spreading across the globe at an accelerating rate, highlighting how climate change-fueled extremes can build dangerously off each other. The researchers found that in the 1980s, this type of extreme weather covered only about 2.5% of Earth's land each year, but by 2023 it had risen to 16.7%, with a 10-year average of 7.9%. The rate of increase in the last 22 years is eight times higher than the earlier rate, which the authors say is even more concerning than the raw numbers.

Why it matters

These 'flash droughts' triggered by heat waves are more damaging than ordinary droughts because they come on suddenly, not allowing people and farmers to prepare. The study found the biggest increases in heat-first droughts in South America, western Canada, Alaska and the western United States, and parts of central and eastern Africa, regions that are already experiencing the impacts of climate change.

The details

The researchers looked at compound extreme weather events - a one-two punch of heat and drought. They found that what's rising especially fast is the more damaging type when the heat comes first and triggers the drought. Events where drought happens first, followed by high heat, remain more common but are also rising. The researchers speculate that Earth may have crossed a 'tipping point' where the change is irreversible, with a possible trigger being a major El Nino event in 1997-98.

  • In the 1980s, heat waves leading to sudden droughts covered about 2.5% of Earth's land each year.
  • By 2023, this type of extreme weather had risen to 16.7% of Earth's land, with a 10-year average of 7.9%.
  • The rate of increase in the last 22 years is eight times higher than the earlier rate.

The players

Sang-Wook Yeh

A climate scientist at Hanyang University in South Korea and co-author of the study.

Yong-Jun Kim

A Hanyang climate scientist and lead author of the study.

Andrew Weaver

A climate scientist at the University of Victoria in British Columbia, Canada, who was not part of the study.

Jennifer Francis

A climate scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center who was not part of the study.

Gerald Meehl

A climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who was not part of the study.

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What they’re saying

“The study illustrates a key point about climate change: the most damaging impacts often come from compound extremes. When heat waves, drought, and wildfire risk occur together — as we saw in events like the Russian heat wave of 2010 or the Australian bushfires in 2019-20 — the impacts can escalate quickly.”

— Andrew Weaver, Climate scientist (Email)

“The 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome illustrates how quickly these compound extremes can escalate — temperatures near 50°C (122 degrees Fahrenheit) in Lytton (British Columbia) were followed by rapid drying and extreme wildfire conditions that destroyed the community.”

— Andrew Weaver, Climate scientist (Email)

“What this study shows is that warming doesn't just make heat waves more likely — it changes how heat and drought interact, amplifying the risks we face.”

— Andrew Weaver, Climate scientist (Email)

What’s next

Several aspects of Earth's climate and ecological systems changed in the late 1990s, with a possible trigger by a major El Nino event in 1997-98. Computer models forecast another major El Nino brewing later this year, which could further exacerbate the trend of increasing heat waves and droughts.

The takeaway

This study highlights the growing threat of compound climate extremes, where heat waves and droughts feed off each other in a dangerous feedback loop. As the planet continues to warm, these types of cascading disasters are likely to become more frequent and severe, underscoring the urgent need for global action to mitigate and adapt to climate change.