Richmond Fed Chief Warns of Sticky Inflation, Strong Jobs Shifting Fed Risks

Barkin cites US-Iran tensions, higher oil prices as factors complicating Fed's policy outlook

Published on Mar. 6, 2026

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Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said still high inflation and stronger recent jobs numbers may shift the Fed's risk outlook at a time when the U.S. conflict with Iran could further push up key consumer prices. Barkin warned that sticky inflation and resilient job growth could pause any conclusion that the Fed is done fighting inflation, complicating the central bank's policy decisions.

Why it matters

Barkin's comments highlight the complex economic landscape the Fed is navigating, with high inflation, strong job growth, and geopolitical tensions all posing risks. The Fed's policy decisions on interest rates will have significant impacts on consumers, businesses, and the broader economy.

The details

Barkin said the recent data, including higher-than-expected inflation and job growth, has shifted the Fed's risk outlook. He noted that the upcoming report on the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is expected to show inflation still about a percentage point above the Fed's 2% target. Additionally, the U.S. conflict with Iran is pushing up crude oil prices, further impacting inflation and economic risks. Barkin indicated the Fed may delay rate cuts, with expectations shifting from June to potentially September, due to the inflation and job market resilience.

  • The Fed meets on March 17-18 to assess the shifting economic landscape.
  • February jobs data will be released on Friday, March 6.

The players

Thomas Barkin

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Kevin Warsh

Incoming Federal Reserve chair, nominated by President Donald Trump to take over when current Chair Jerome Powell's leadership term ends in May.

Jerome Powell

Current Federal Reserve chair.

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What they’re saying

“With the PCE numbers that we're expecting next week, you've got a couple months of relatively high inflation. That certainly puts pause to any conclusion that we're done fighting this.”

— Thomas Barkin, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (Bloomberg Television)

“Obviously, you watch oil prices. While the U.S. is no longer a net importer, it's still the case that the price at the pump matters a lot in terms of sentiment, in terms of crowding out other spending.”

— Thomas Barkin, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (Bloomberg Television)

What’s next

The Fed will meet on March 17-18 to assess the economic landscape and make policy decisions, with the February jobs report due to be released on March 6 also a key factor.

The takeaway

The Fed is facing a complex set of economic conditions, with sticky inflation, strong job growth, and geopolitical tensions all posing risks and complicating the central bank's policy decisions on interest rates. The Fed's actions will have significant impacts on consumers, businesses, and the broader economy.