Federal Reserve Holds Steady on Interest Rates in March

Markets watch for clues on potential future cuts as Powell's tenure nears end

Published on Mar. 5, 2026

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The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting, maintaining the current 3.5% to 3.75% range. While inflation remains above the central bank's target, policymakers are not overly concerned about labor market risks at this time. However, markets will be closely watching for any signals about potential rate cuts later in 2026, especially if Jerome Powell is succeeded as Fed Chair by the nominated Kevin Warsh.

Why it matters

The Fed's monetary policy decisions have a significant impact on the broader economy, influencing everything from borrowing costs for businesses and consumers to the strength of the U.S. dollar. The March meeting will provide important clues about the central bank's economic outlook and future policy path, which investors will use to guide their investment strategies.

The details

While a rate cut is not expected at the March 18 meeting, there is a possibility of some dissenting votes from policymakers like Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller who have previously called for lower rates. The meeting will also feature an update to the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, which will offer more insight into officials' views on inflation, employment, and interest rate trends. Additionally, the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell as Fed Chair will be closely watched, as Warsh may take a different approach to communication and policy commentary.

  • The Federal Reserve's next scheduled policy decision is on March 18, 2026.
  • President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair was formally sent to the Senate earlier this week.

The players

Jerome Powell

The current Chair of the Federal Reserve, whose term is set to expire in the coming months.

Kevin Warsh

The nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.

Stephen Miran

A Federal Reserve policymaker who has previously dissented in calling for lower interest rates.

Christopher Waller

A Federal Reserve policymaker who has also previously dissented in calling for lower interest rates.

Lisa Cook

A Federal Reserve Governor whose potential dismissal by President Trump is being considered by the Supreme Court.

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What’s next

The Supreme Court is expected to rule in the coming months on whether President Trump can fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. If she were to be fired, that would open up a Federal Reserve Governor nomination for Trump, potentially enabling him to shape monetary policy further.

The takeaway

The Federal Reserve's March policy decision will be closely watched for clues about the central bank's economic outlook and future interest rate path, especially as Jerome Powell's tenure as Chair nears its end and the nomination of Kevin Warsh looms. Investors will be looking for signals about the potential for rate cuts later in 2026, while also monitoring the impact of geopolitical developments like the Iran conflict on the Fed's decision-making.