Oil Prices Surge After US-Israel Attacks on Iran

Experts warn that how the White House responds in the coming week could determine how high prices climb.

Published on Mar. 2, 2026

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Oil prices jumped over 13% on Monday after the United States and Israel attacked Iran over the weekend, with some analysts predicting prices could soon reach over $100 per barrel. The conflict has disrupted oil and gas infrastructure in the region, including the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping route. Experts say the White House's next moves, as well as Iran and OPEC's responses, will be key in determining how high prices eventually climb.

Why it matters

The spike in oil prices comes during a midterm election year when Americans are already focused on high energy bills. How the White House handles the escalating conflict with Iran could have major political and economic implications.

The details

The price of Brent crude jumped to almost $80 a barrel when markets opened on Sunday evening, a nearly 13% increase over Friday's prices. Experts say the market has been pricing in the risk of the US's aggressive stance towards Iran for months, but the disorganized US follow-through to the initial attack is introducing much more uncertainty. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial shipping route where one out of every five barrels of oil travels. While Iran has sent mixed messages on whether the strait is formally closed, traffic through it has dropped to near-zero. Insurance companies have increased policies on ships traveling through the strait, and some ships have been hit by drone strikes.

  • Oil prices surged on Monday, March 2, 2026 following the US and Israel's attacks on Iran over the weekend.
  • In September 2019, drones hit major oil production facilities in Saudi Arabia, temporarily shooting oil prices up 15%.

The players

Tyson Slocum

The director of the energy program at the progressive think tank Public Citizen.

Rory Johnston

A Canadian oil market researcher.

Clayton Seigle

A senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington, DC.

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What they’re saying

“For all of Trump saying, 'Hey, you know, we took out Khamenei, we knew exactly where he was,'—apparently we didn't do the same for Iran's attack capabilities. It seems like our plan was to take out Khamenei and then hope for the best.”

— Tyson Slocum, Director of the energy program at Public Citizen (Wired)

“As long as I have been in the oil market, Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been kind of the ultimate risk scenario for prices.”

— Rory Johnston, Canadian oil market researcher (Wired)

“The more desperate Iran becomes, the greater likelihood for it to use energy as leverage to advance its interests. If tankers abandon the Gulf trade in large numbers, and certainly if major oil infrastructure is damaged, we're likely to see triple digit crude prices again.”

— Clayton Seigle, Senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (Wired)

What’s next

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The takeaway

This case highlights growing concerns in the community about repeat offenders released on bail, raising questions about bail reform, public safety on SF streets, and if any special laws to govern autonomous vehicles in residential and commercial areas.