Oil Prices Poised to Surge Past $100 as Strait of Hormuz Faces Threat

Analysts warn that disruption to oil flows through the strategic waterway could have major market implications

Published on Mar. 2, 2026

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Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, concerns have grown that the Strait of Hormuz could face disruption — a development analysts warn could push oil prices toward $100 per barrel. Tanker operators and major energy firms have temporarily suspended shipments of crude, refined fuels and liquefied natural gas through the waterway after Tehran cautioned vessels about transiting the area. Markets are already reacting, with the VIX volatility index rising sharply and investors shifting toward safe-haven assets.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global chokepoint, with more than 20% of the world's oil supply flowing through the waterway. Any disruption to shipping in the strait could have major ramifications for energy markets and the broader global economy.

The details

Analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, it could result in a potential shortfall of 8 to 10 million barrels per day. This could push oil prices up by around $20 per barrel, potentially lifting Brent crude to roughly $92 per barrel. Some analysts even suggest prices could surge past $100 per barrel if the disruption lasts. Asian governments and refiners have been reviewing inventories and contingency plans in response to the heightened geopolitical tensions.

  • On Sunday, OPEC+ decided to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day beginning in April.

The players

Ajay Parmar

Director of energy and refining at ICIS.

Helima Croft

An analyst at RBC.

Jorge Leon

An energy economist at Rystad.

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What they’re saying

“The biggest lever for crude is whether Hormuz is closed, not simply the airstrikes themselves. He said that he expects the market to reopen much nearer $100 a barrel, with the potential to push beyond that level if the disruption lasts.”

— Ajay Parmar, Director of energy and refining at ICIS (Reuters)

“Middle East leaders have warned Washington that a war involving Iran could send prices above $100”

— Helima Croft, Analyst at RBC (Reuters)

“Oil prices could surge by about $20 once markets reopen, potentially lifting Brent crude to roughly $92 per barrel.”

— Jorge Leon, Energy economist at Rystad (Reuters)

What’s next

Analysts and industry experts will continue to monitor the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and any potential disruptions to oil flows through the strategic waterway. Governments and energy companies are reviewing contingency plans in case of a prolonged closure of the strait.

The takeaway

The threat of disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz highlights the fragility of global energy markets and the outsized impact geopolitical tensions can have on commodity prices. This underscores the need for diversified energy sources and supply chains to mitigate the risks of such disruptions.