Trump Approval Rating Bucks National Trend in New Poll

Pollster cites 'orderly and strategic ICE raids' and economic signs as factors behind shift

Published on Mar. 1, 2026

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A new national poll has found former President Donald Trump with a 50% approval rating, bucking broader trends that have shown him deeply underwater. The InsiderAdvantage survey, conducted February 17-18 among 800 likely voters, placed Trump narrowly above water at 50% approval and 46% disapproval. However, polling analysts caution that individual polls can diverge from the broader picture due to differences in methodology, sampling, and timing.

Why it matters

Trump's second-term approval has been shaped by sharp polarization and uneven reactions to his agenda. With the midterms approaching, even isolated shifts are being closely scrutinized for political significance.

The details

InsiderAdvantage pollster Matt Towery said the result reflects a rebound after a period of weaker approval, arguing Trump has returned to roughly the 50% level, close to or exceeding his margin of victory against Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. Towery pointed to what he described as more orderly and strategic ICE raids, along with signs the economy is turning positive, as factors behind the shift. However, other polling analysts say the InsiderAdvantage result stands apart from most other recent surveys and should be interpreted carefully.

  • The InsiderAdvantage poll was conducted on February 17-18, 2026.
  • Trump's second-term approval has been shaped by sharp polarization and uneven reactions to his agenda since his 2024 re-election.

The players

Donald Trump

The former president of the United States who was re-elected in 2024.

Davis Ingle

A White House spokesperson.

Matt Towery

An InsiderAdvantage pollster who conducted the survey showing Trump with a 50% approval rating.

Eli McKown-Dawson

A polling analyst who cautioned that individual polls can diverge from the broader picture due to differences in methodology, sampling, and timing.

David Montgomery

A senior data journalist at YouGov.

Taylor Orth

The director of survey data journalism at YouGov.

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What they’re saying

“The ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda. The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world. It is not surprising that President Trump remains the most dominant figure in American politics.”

— Davis Ingle, White House spokesperson (Newsweek)

“After a period of weakness in his approval ratings, President Trump has come back to the 50 percent level, near to or exceeding his margin of victory against Kamala Harris in 2024. Other pollsters who also have correctly polled Trump in past election cycles are showing the same upward trend. Rasmussen Reports' approval shows Trump's approval on the rise as well.”

— Matt Towery, InsiderAdvantage pollster (Newsweek)

“The highest Poll Numbers I have ever received. Obviously, people like a strong and powerful Country, with the best economy, EVER!”

— Donald Trump (Truth Social)

“A majority of Americans disapprove of how Donald Trump is handling his overall job as president, and even more disapprove of how Trump is handling the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. These negative views of Trump's handling of his overall job and the Epstein investigation have changed little in recent weeks.”

— David Montgomery and Taylor Orth, Senior data journalist and director of survey data journalism at YouGov (YouGov)

What’s next

As Trump pushes ahead with his second-term agenda, future policy battles and polling releases will test whether the InsiderAdvantage result reflects a lasting shift or a short-lived outlier.

The takeaway

This poll highlights the deep polarization in the country around Trump, with his core supporters remaining steadfast in their approval while the broader public continues to view him negatively. The divergence in polling results underscores the challenges in interpreting the political landscape ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.