Trump's Trade War to Reach Cease-Fire, But Post-Midterm Battle Looms

Investors brace for new escalation in 2027 as Trump aims to protect American industry

Published on Feb. 24, 2026

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President Donald Trump's trade war will simmer in 2026 but is expected to reignite in 2027 as the former president seeks to achieve his longstanding goal of protecting American industry, according to a new analysis. The trade conflict is seen as a geopolitical phenomenon driven by extreme factionalism at home and the rise of a Russo-Chinese strategic challenge abroad.

Why it matters

The ongoing trade war has had significant economic and political implications, impacting businesses, consumers, and the broader geopolitical landscape. As the 2028 election approaches, the potential for a renewed trade battle could further roil financial markets and test the resilience of the U.S. economy.

The details

The analysis suggests that while the trade war will decline in 2026, it is likely to escalate again in 2027 as Trump, in his final political opportunity, aims to fulfill his goal of shielding American industry from foreign competition. However, the report cautions that there is no guarantee the trade conflict will wrap up neatly in time for the 2028 election, given the complex geopolitical factors at play.

  • The trade war is expected to simmer in 2026.
  • A new escalation in the trade war is anticipated in 2027, Trump's final political opportunity to achieve his goal of protecting American industry.

The players

Donald Trump

The former president of the United States who initiated the trade war with the goal of protecting American industry.

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What they’re saying

“Amid all the partisan debate, we cannot forget that Trump's trade war is a geopolitical phenomenon. The U.S. faces the confluence of two once-in-a-generation threats: extreme factionalism at home and the rise of a Russo-Chinese strategic challenge abroad.”

— Matt Gertken, Author (MarketWatch)

The takeaway

The potential for a renewed trade war between the U.S. and its global partners in the lead-up to the 2028 election could have significant implications for financial markets and the broader economy, underscoring the need for policymakers and investors to closely monitor the evolving geopolitical landscape.