Carney Outlines Middle Power Doctrine to Resist Superpower Coercion

Canadian PM proposes 'variable geometry' diplomacy to build resilient networks of smaller nations against bullying by great powers

Feb. 22, 2026 at 2:31pm

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In a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney outlined a strategic vision for middle powers to band together in flexible, values-based networks to resist coercion from superpower rivals like the U.S. and China. Dubbed the 'Carney Doctrine,' the proposal calls for middle powers to reduce overdependence on unreliable hegemons and hobbled multilateral institutions, and instead build thicker ties with trusted partners based on shared interests and the prospect of collective leverage.

Why it matters

Carney's plan addresses a fundamental contradiction in legacy institutions like NATO, where middle powers chafe under a structure designed by Washington to ensure U.S. primacy. With the rules-based international order in tatters, Carney argues middle powers must take more responsibility for defending their sovereignty through pragmatic, adaptable coalitions that can impose real costs on coercive behavior.

The details

Carney's 'variable geometry' diplomacy would invest in existing networks of middle powers, like connecting the EU and CPTPP trade blocs, and supplement them with sector-specific agreements that impose conditions on access to sensitive supply chains. Coordinated mechanisms for rapid collective retaliation, pooled commodity insurance, and emergency financing could help absorb and redirect pressure from bullying by great powers.

  • Carney delivered the speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last month.
  • In late January, Carney told Canada's House of Commons that 'the world has changed' and 'there is almost nothing normal now in the United States.'

The players

Mark Carney

The Canadian Prime Minister and former central bank chief who outlined the 'Carney Doctrine' of middle power diplomacy.

Vladimir Putin

The Russian president who openly rejects the constraints that Carney's vision for a rules-based order implies.

Xi Jinping

The Chinese president who professes support for multilateralism while exploiting and undermining liberal institutions from within.

Donald Trump

The former U.S. president who also rejected the constraints of a rules-based international order.

Joe Biden

The current U.S. president who has taken steps to support smaller countries targeted by economic coercion, including establishing a Countering Economic Coercion Task Force.

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What they’re saying

“The world has changed. Washington has changed. There is almost nothing normal now in the United States.”

— Mark Carney, Canadian Prime Minister

“Without credibly enforced rules, interdependence with systemic rivals increases the risk of coercion. Complying with big powers' demands doesn't buy safety, it only spurs them to come back for more.”

— Mark Carney, Canadian Prime Minister

What’s next

Carney and like-minded leaders will need to communicate their vision effectively and consistently, aligning political signals with coalition objectives and avoiding language that normalizes relations without accountability. They will also need to harden themselves to opposition from tyrants, extremists, and captured elites, treating countermeasures as a sign their strategies are working.

The takeaway

Carney's 'variable geometry' diplomacy represents a pragmatic, realist approach for middle powers to build resilient networks and impose real costs on coercive behavior by great powers, in the absence of a reliable U.S. hegemon or effective multilateral institutions. However, success will require overcoming collective action problems and preventing autocratic powers from infiltrating and undermining these new coalitions.