USDA Chief Economist Forecasts Improved Farm Economy in 2026

Justin Benavidez discusses commodity prices, input costs, and labor market outlook for the year ahead

Feb. 21, 2026 at 12:54am

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture is anticipating a slightly easier 2026 for American agricultural producers, with prices for major commodities expected to rise and input and labor costs moderating, according to USDA Chief Economist Justin Benavidez. Benavidez sat down with Agri-Pulse to discuss the future outlook for the farm economy.

Why it matters

As the top economist at USDA, Benavidez's insights on the trajectory of commodity prices, production costs, and labor availability are closely watched by farmers, agribusinesses, and policymakers. His projections for the year ahead provide valuable guidance on the financial conditions facing the agricultural sector.

The details

Benavidez noted that USDA is forecasting modest increases in prices for major crops and livestock in 2026, offering some relief after several years of tight margins for producers. Additionally, the department expects input costs like fertilizer and fuel to stabilize, while the agricultural labor market should see improved availability compared to recent shortages.

  • Benavidez's interview with Agri-Pulse was conducted on February 20, 2026.

The players

Justin Benavidez

The Chief Economist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, responsible for providing economic analysis and forecasts to guide policymaking and industry decisions.

Agri-Pulse

A leading news source covering agricultural policy, economics, and industry trends in the United States.

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What they’re saying

“We're anticipating a slightly easier 2026 for U.S. ag producers, with prices for major commodities nudging higher and input and labor costs moderating.”

— Justin Benavidez, USDA Chief Economist (Agri-Pulse)

What’s next

Benavidez and the USDA will continue to monitor economic conditions in the agricultural sector and provide updated forecasts and analysis throughout the year.

The takeaway

After several challenging years, the USDA's top economist sees signs of improvement in the farm economy for 2026, with higher commodity prices, stabilizing input costs, and a better labor market outlook providing a boost to producer profitability.