U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Misses Estimates

Economic growth slowed to 1.4% in the final quarter of 2025, falling short of projections.

Feb. 20, 2026 at 9:07pm

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The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP increased at a 1.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, well below the 2.5% growth that market analysts had projected. This represents a significant deceleration from the 4.4% growth seen in the previous quarter.

Why it matters

The slower-than-expected GDP growth in Q4 2025 suggests the U.S. economy may be losing momentum, raising concerns about the overall health of the economy and the potential for a slowdown or recession in the coming year.

The details

The 1.4% GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 was a marked deceleration from the 4.4% growth seen in the previous quarter. Economists had been projecting a 2.5% growth rate for the final quarter of the year, so the actual 1.4% figure fell well short of those expectations.

  • The GDP data was released on February 20, 2026.
  • The Q4 2025 GDP growth rate was 1.4%.
  • The previous quarter, Q3 2025, saw GDP growth of 4.4%.

The players

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

The U.S. government agency responsible for collecting and publishing economic data, including GDP figures.

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The takeaway

The weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Q4 2025 raises concerns about the overall strength of the U.S. economy and the potential for a slowdown or recession in the coming year. Economists will be closely watching future economic data to see if this deceleration is a temporary blip or the start of a broader economic downturn.