Top US Trading Partners Pledge $5 Trillion in Investments, but Doubts Linger

Researchers question whether the money will actually materialize and how it would be spent.

Jan. 27, 2026 at 11:39am

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A new study from the Peterson Institute for International Economics raises doubts about the $5 trillion in investment commitments made by America's top trading partners, including the European Union, Japan, and Gulf states. The researchers found the pledges are "clouded with uncertainty" and that some countries may struggle to meet their targets, especially if the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs used by President Trump to negotiate the deals.

Why it matters

The investments could create jobs and spur economic growth in the US, but the researchers warn the approach raises concerns about opaque decision-making, weak accountability, and the risk that political factors could override economic efficiency.

The details

The study by Gregory Auclair and Adnan Mazarei examined over $5 trillion in investment commitments made by major US trading partners last year, which President Trump secured through the threat of punitive tariffs. However, the researchers found the "metrics for measuring and thus verifying the pledges are generally unclear," and some countries like the Gulf states may have to borrow heavily to meet their targets. They also noted the agreements were "reached under duress" and trading partners could look for ways to back out, especially if the Supreme Court rules Trump's tariffs illegal.

  • The study was released on January 27, 2026.
  • A Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump's tariffs is expected as early as February 2026.

The players

Gregory Auclair

Researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a nonpartisan think tank that supports free trade.

Adnan Mazarei

Researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former deputy director of the International Monetary Fund.

Donald Trump

Former President of the United States who used the threat of tariffs to secure investment pledges from major trading partners.

Joe Biden

Current President of the United States who has taken a different approach to encouraging domestic manufacturing through taxpayer-funded incentives and infrastructure projects.

Kush Desai

White House spokesman who defended President Trump's use of tariffs to secure investment commitments.

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What they’re saying

“How realistic are these commitments? The short answer is that they are clouded with uncertainty.”

— Gregory Auclair, Researcher (wbal.com)

“The pledged amounts are large, but their time horizon varies, and the metrics for measuring and thus verifying the pledges are generally unclear.”

— Adnan Mazarei, Researcher (wbal.com)

“These agreements have been reached under duress. It's not necessarily being done willingly.”

— Adnan Mazarei, Former Deputy Director, International Monetary Fund (wbal.com)

“President Trump agreed to lower tariffs on countries we have trade deals with in exchange for investment commitments and other concessions. The president reserves the right to revisit tariff rates if other countries renege on their commitments, and anyone who doubts President Trump's willingness to put his money where his mouth is should ask Nicolas Maduro and Iran for their thoughts.”

— Kush Desai, White House Spokesman (wbal.com)

What’s next

The Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of President Trump's tariffs as early as February 2026, which could impact the enforceability of the investment commitments.

The takeaway

While the potential investments could boost the US economy, the researchers warn that the Trump administration's approach of using tariffs to extract concessions from trading partners raises concerns about transparency, accountability, and whether political factors will override economic efficiency in how the investments are ultimately deployed.