Colorado River Faces Dire Drought Crisis

Lack of snowpack and record-high temperatures threaten water supply for 40 million people

Mar. 16, 2026 at 9:23pm

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The Southwest is experiencing its most severe drought in over 1,200 years, with this winter's snow dearth being one of the most extreme on record. Without an April-May miracle, climate change is likely to finally catch up with the Colorado River and the 40 million people who rely on it, leading to a full-blown crisis later this year.

Why it matters

The Colorado River Compact of 1922 allocated the river's waters based on an assumed annual flow of at least 16.5 million acre-feet, but demand has significantly exceeded supply for the last 26 years, forcing the drawdown of the watershed's big savings accounts, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, to about one-third of their capacity. The warming climate is wreaking havoc on the math of the Colorado River, and this year's snow drought may be what pushes the entire river system over the edge.

The details

Warm temperatures have left some areas of the Upper Colorado River Basin snow-free even in parts of Wyoming, where the white stuff normally would be piled high in March. The diminishing snow has shrunk the Colorado River, with the 'natural' flow being below 15 million acre-feet during 20 of the last 26 years, with an average flow of 12.25 million acre-feet during that time. This is problematic because the Upper Basin States must release, on average, at least 7.5 million acre-feet from Glen Canyon Dam each year to comply with the Colorado River Compact.

  • The Southwest has experienced its warmest winter since record-keeping began in 1895.
  • This water year, which began Oct. 1, started out with record-high precipitation in some areas, most of which fell as rain.
  • The Bureau of Reclamation's latest forecast says Lake Powell's surface level is likely to drop below the minimum level needed for power production later this year.

The players

Colorado River

A major river in the Southwestern United States and northern Mexico, providing water to 40 million people.

Glen Canyon Dam

A concrete arch-gravity dam on the Colorado River in northern Arizona that forms Lake Powell.

Bureau of Reclamation

A federal agency under the U.S. Department of the Interior that manages water resources in the Western United States.

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What they’re saying

“Drought' may be too hopeful a word, since it implies an eventual end. Most climate scientists refer to the phenomenon as 'long-term aridification,' caused by a lack of rain and snow and warming temperatures.”

— Jonathan Thompson, Contributor

What’s next

The seven Colorado River states and the federal water managers must agree on who should make what cuts in water consumption to address the crisis. The federal government also needs to re-engineer Glen Canyon Dam or create a bypass around it to enable the water to keep flowing.

The takeaway

The Colorado River system is teetering on the brink, and this year's snow drought may be what pushes it over the edge, forcing the 40 million people who rely on the river to make difficult choices about water usage and conservation in the face of the Southwest's most severe drought in over a millennium.