Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Declared 'Dead' by Prominent Advocate

Institutional adoption and changing market dynamics may have rendered the traditional investment strategy obsolete.

Apr. 13, 2026 at 3:35am

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An extreme close-up of the intricate mechanical components of a bank vault, representing the complex financial infrastructure underlying the evolving Bitcoin market.As Bitcoin becomes more institutionalized, the traditional four-year investment cycle may no longer apply, forcing investors to rethink their strategies.Denver Today

According to Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, the four-year price cycle that Bitcoin investors have long relied on is no longer relevant. Saylor argues that Bitcoin's price is now driven more by capital flows and institutional adoption rather than the programmed supply cuts known as 'halvings'. This prediction could have major implications for how investors approach buying and holding the cryptocurrency.

Why it matters

If Saylor's prediction is correct, it would mean that one of the key strategies used by Bitcoin investors - buying during post-crash periods and holding through the four-year halving cycle - may no longer be as effective. This could force investors to rethink their approach to investing in Bitcoin as the asset becomes more institutionalized and its price dynamics shift.

The details

Saylor's logic is that Bitcoin's halvings, which cut the rate of new Bitcoin creation in half every four years, used to be the primary driver of each market cycle. But now, the asset's high degree of institutionalization among major banks, corporations, and ETFs is a more important factor. These large financial players are accumulating and holding Bitcoin for the long term, changing the character of price drawdowns and reducing the benefit of trying to time investments around cyclical lows.

  • Bitcoin's last halving event occurred in May 2024.
  • The cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of around $126,000 per coin in October 2025.

The players

Michael Saylor

The founder of MicroStrategy, one of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin with over 766,970 BTC in its treasury.

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

A Bitcoin spot ETF that holds over 784,620 BTC, representing a significant portion of the cryptocurrency's circulating supply.

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What they’re saying

“The four-year cycle is dead.”

— Michael Saylor, Founder, MicroStrategy

What’s next

The evidence to settle the debate over whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle is truly 'dead' or not won't arrive for years. In the meantime, experts recommend that investors focus on long-term strategies like dollar-cost averaging rather than trying to time market cycles.

The takeaway

This prediction from a prominent Bitcoin advocate highlights the evolving nature of the cryptocurrency market as it becomes more institutionalized. Investors may need to rethink traditional investment strategies and focus on steady, long-term approaches rather than trying to time the market's ups and downs.