Drought and Low Snowpack Raise Concerns for Western Water Supplies and Wildfire Risk

Record-breaking temperatures and minimal winter snowpack could trigger water shortages and an early start to the fire season across the West.

Mar. 29, 2026 at 1:43am

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Several regions in the West are facing worsening drought conditions, increased wildfire risk, and reduced water supplies due to record-breaking temperatures and minimal winter snowpack. More than half of the West continues to experience drought conditions, and every major river basin and state in the region is experiencing a snow drought. This has significantly impacted water supplies, with major reservoirs like Lake Powell dropping to near-record lows. Experts warn that water restrictions are likely to expand in multiple states as the year progresses, and the region could face an elevated wildfire risk this spring and summer.

Why it matters

The ongoing drought and lack of snowpack in the West have far-reaching implications for water availability, agriculture, ecosystems, and wildfire risk across the region. With mountain snowpack serving as a critical natural reservoir, the sharp reduction in snowpack levels is heightening concerns about water supplies for millions of people, as well as the potential for an early and intense wildfire season.

The details

The West's snow drought has significantly worsened in recent weeks following record-breaking March heat. Snowpack, a key indicator of drought conditions, is at record-low levels across the region, including in the crucial Colorado River Basin. This means there will be less runoff to fill rivers and reservoirs during the spring melt. Major reservoirs like Lake Powell have already dropped significantly, and water restrictions have been implemented in some areas, such as Denver. Experts warn that restrictions are likely to expand as the year progresses if dry conditions persist. The lack of snowpack has also primed the landscape for an earlier and potentially more intense wildfire season, although the long-term outlook remains uncertain and will depend on factors like the upcoming monsoon season.

  • The West experienced its warmest winter on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
  • Unprecedented, record-breaking heat hit the region in March, further intensifying drought conditions.
  • Snowpack typically peaks in late March or early April, marking a critical point in the region's water supply outlook.
  • Denver Water announced water restrictions for the first time since 2013 on Wednesday, seeking a 20% reduction in water use.
  • Parts of Colorado, Wyoming, and New Mexico have already seen impactful wildfires this year.

The players

NOAA

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a scientific agency within the United States Department of Commerce that focuses on the conditions of the oceans, major waterways, and the atmosphere.

Denver Water

The public water utility for the city of Denver, Colorado, which has announced water restrictions for the first time since 2013 due to the deteriorating snowpack and water supply conditions.

National Interagency Fire Center

A cooperative organization that coordinates national wildland fire management efforts in the United States.

Jason Gerlich

The regional drought early warning system coordinator for the NOAA-National Integrated Drought Information System.

Casey Olson

A climate scientist with the Utah Climate Center.

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What they’re saying

“If winter precipitation is falling as rain instead of snow, our relationship with water in the West becomes even shakier. A gallon of winter rain that immediately runs off downstream is not nearly as helpful come July as a gallon of snowpack that melts in April or May. They are not equivalent gallons of precipitation in terms of our ability to use them when we need them the most.”

— Casey Olson, Climate scientist, Utah Climate Center

“The snowpack within Denver Water's collection system has deteriorated significantly and continues to decline. Snowpack levels in both basins are now the lowest observed in the past 40 years, with accelerated melting underway.”

— Nathan Elder, Manager of water supply, Denver Water

“Low snowpack and fire don't have a one-to-one relationship, but low snowpack can lead to an early start to the fire season.”

— Jason Gerlich, Regional drought early warning system coordinator, NOAA-National Integrated Drought Information System

What’s next

Experts say the long-term wildfire outlook for the region hinges on how several key conditions, such as the upcoming monsoon season and the potential development of El Niño, unfold over the next few months. The strength of the monsoon system could provide some relief to parts of the Southwest, but the exact focus of that relief remains uncertain.

The takeaway

The intensifying drought and lack of snowpack in the West pose significant challenges for water supplies, agriculture, and wildfire risk across the region. This highlights the need for proactive water conservation measures and long-term planning to adapt to the changing climate and its impacts on the region's critical natural resources.