Broncos Avoid Free Agency Frenzy, Stick to Proven Approach

Data-driven strategy prioritizes retaining own talent over risky outside signings

Mar. 28, 2026 at 2:26am

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While many NFL teams splurged on high-profile free agents this offseason, the Denver Broncos took a more measured approach, focusing on re-signing their own players and making only a few low-cost additions from other teams. This strategy appears to be rooted in a data-driven analysis of free agency trends that suggests caution is warranted, especially at certain positions.

Why it matters

The Broncos' free agency approach reflects a growing trend in the NFL of teams being more selective with their spending, wary of the high failure rate of big-money signings from other teams. This data-driven strategy could pay dividends for the Broncos if it helps them avoid costly mistakes and build a more sustainable roster.

The details

An analysis by ESPN's Bill Barnwell found that only about 41% of high-profile free agent signings end up being successful, with the rest ranging from "slightly disappointing" to "disastrous." The data showed particularly poor success rates for tight ends, running backs, and linebackers - positions of need for the Broncos. Instead, the team focused on retaining its own players like safety Talanoa Hufanga and defensive tackle Zach Allen, who have proven to be productive fits.

  • The Broncos made just one significant free agent signing from another team, adding former Bengals safety Tycen Anderson to an inexpensive deal.
  • The team's most notable move was trading for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, but otherwise the offseason was quiet as the Broncos prioritized keeping their own talent.

The players

Tycen Anderson

A former Cincinnati Bengals safety signed by the Broncos to an inexpensive free agent deal.

Jaylen Waddle

A wide receiver traded to the Broncos, the team's biggest offseason acquisition.

Talanoa Hufanga

A safety the Broncos re-signed after he played well in his first season with the team.

Zach Allen

A defensive tackle the Broncos re-signed after he had a productive year on the interior of their defensive line.

Bill Barnwell

An ESPN analyst who conducted an in-depth study of free agent signings across the NFL.

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What they’re saying

“Free-agent signings work out about 41% of the time, either living up to the contract signed or exceeding it. In that context, free agents signed from other teams can be valuable.”

— Bill Barnwell, ESPN Analyst

What’s next

The Broncos may look to add lower-cost free agents at positions like tight end, running back, and linebacker before or after the draft, having seen the data on the high failure rate of big-money signings at those spots.

The takeaway

The Broncos' measured approach in free agency, rooted in data-driven analysis of past signings, reflects a growing trend in the NFL of teams being more selective with their spending to build sustainable rosters and avoid costly mistakes.