Early Heat and Dry Conditions Heighten Colorado Wildfire Risks

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Warm, dry conditions and low snowpack levels across Colorado have wildfire meteorologists concerned about an earlier and potentially more intense wildfire season this year. Meteorologist Nikolai Reimer has already observed more Red Flag Warnings - indicating critical fire weather conditions - than is typical for this time of year. With below-average snowpack levels, the buffer that melting snow normally provides to delay the start of widespread fire activity may disappear sooner. While snowpack is less relevant later in the summer, drought conditions and the strength of the seasonal monsoon will then shape fire risk, and early indications suggest the possibility of a weaker monsoon pattern.

Why it matters

Wildfires pose a serious threat to communities across Colorado, and an earlier and more intense fire season could put more lives and property at risk. The state's wildfire preparedness and response efforts will need to adapt to these shifting conditions, and residents will need to be extra vigilant about fire safety as the dry, hot weather persists.

The details

Meteorologist Nikolai Reimer has observed 'numerous weeks where it's been several days in a row where we've had these red flags,' referring to the frequent Red Flag Warnings issued due to low humidity, strong winds, and dry fuels. This is 'a lot more than we would typically see this time of year,' he said. The dry conditions are the result of a La Niña pattern this winter that steered storms away from Colorado, leaving behind below-average precipitation. With less snowpack to melt and delay the start of fire season, Reimer expects to see more fires starting earlier in the year.

• Temperatures in Denver could reach 90 degrees this week, about 40 days before the earliest 90-degree day on record.
• Across Colorado, snow levels are well below normal, with southern parts of the state holding roughly 40% of the typical snowpack for mid-March, and northern areas closer to 60%.

What they’re saying

What’s next

Forecasting the strength of the upcoming monsoon season remains uncertain, but early indications suggest the possibility of a weaker pattern, which could mean fewer rain events during the peak of fire season.