Prediction Markets Boom as Bettors Wager on Climate, Sports, and Politics

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket see surging interest in money-making wagers on everything from weather forecasts to election outcomes.

Published on Mar. 10, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

Prediction markets, where people can bet on the outcomes of current events, have seen a surge in popularity as bettors try to profit from wagers on topics ranging from climate change to sports and politics. While some users have made big paydays, the platforms have also drawn criticism over potential insider trading and the ethics of 'death markets' that collect wagers on deadly events.

Why it matters

The growth of prediction markets raises concerns about the potential for insider trading, gambling addiction, and the ability of these platforms to influence real-world events. As more people turn to these markets to try to make money, there are questions about whether they should be regulated like traditional gambling or financial exchanges.

The details

Prediction markets allow users to bet on the outcomes of current events, from the weather forecast to the results of elections and TV show ratings. Two of the largest platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have seen surging interest, with people wagering over $90,000 in a single day on Denver's high temperature. While some users have profited, the platforms have faced criticism over potential insider trading, with one trader reportedly making over $400,000 by betting on a Venezuelan leader's ouster just hours before a US operation. Lawmakers have called for restricting wagers tied to US military operations, and there are concerns that the markets could influence real-world events if insiders make choices based on their bets.

  • In 2022, users hopped onto Kalshi to wager on the water levels at Lake Mead as officials warned of crisis conditions in the Colorado River basin.
  • In 2024, bettors on Kalshi correctly called the outcome of the US presidential election, with the 'Who will win the Presidential Election?' market seeing almost $536 million in trades.

The players

Kalshi

A leading prediction market platform where people can bet on the outcomes of current events.

Polymarket

Another major prediction market platform that allows users to wager on a variety of topics.

Edward Van Wesep

An economist and professor at the University of Colorado who has studied prediction markets.

John Hickenlooper

A Democratic senator from Colorado who has called for restricting gambling contracts on events tied to US military operations.

Jack Reed

A Democratic senator from Rhode Island who has also called for restricting gambling contracts on events tied to US military operations.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“If you're good at predicting things, absolutely. Some people are very bad at predicting things.”

— Edward Van Wesep, Economist and Professor, University of Colorado (coloradosun.com)

“That's the real problem. It's one thing when prediction markets reflect the likelihood of things occurring. It's a completely different story when they cause things to occur. That, I think, is quite disturbing and needs to be addressed.”

— Edward Van Wesep, Economist and Professor, University of Colorado (coloradosun.com)

What’s next

Senators Hickenlooper and Reed have called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to prohibit gambling contracts on events tied to US military operations, indicating that further regulatory action may be taken to address concerns about prediction markets.

The takeaway

The rapid growth of prediction markets has raised significant concerns about the potential for insider trading, gambling addiction, and the ability of these platforms to influence real-world events. As these markets continue to expand, policymakers will likely need to grapple with how to balance the potential benefits of prediction markets with the risks they pose to individuals and society.