America's Run of Dunning-Kruger Administrations

Experts say overconfident leaders with limited knowledge can have dangerous consequences

Published on Feb. 18, 2026

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A new report from the Incite Institute at Columbia University examines how the Obama administration was blindsided by the rise and election of Donald Trump, whom they viewed as a "con man" and "clown." The report suggests that Obama and his team, like many others, missed the shifting mood of the country that would ultimately elevate a figure they scorned. This pattern has continued with subsequent presidents, including Trump and Biden, who have been convinced they are doing a terrific job despite low approval ratings and public dissatisfaction.

Why it matters

The Dunning-Kruger effect, where incompetent people overestimate their own abilities, can have dangerous consequences when those individuals pursue positions of power. This phenomenon appears to have played out with the last several U.S. presidents, raising concerns about the quality of leadership and the ability of the electorate to hold leaders accountable.

The details

The Incite Institute report examines how the Obama administration was completely surprised by Trump's rise and election, viewing him as a "thorn in the side" rather than a serious threat. Obama's team struggled to understand how populist disenchantment with the establishment could elevate someone they scorned. This pattern has continued, with Trump insisting he had the "greatest first term in presidential history" despite low approval ratings, and Biden claiming the U.S. economy was the world's best despite evidence to the contrary.

  • In November 2016, 37% of Americans said they were satisfied with the direction of the country, while 62% said they were dissatisfied.
  • In July 2016, just 17% of Americans said they were satisfied with the direction of the country.

The players

Barack Obama

The 44th President of the United States, who was surprised by the rise and election of Donald Trump, whom he and his team viewed as a "con man" and "clown."

Donald Trump

The 45th President of the United States, who insisted he had the "greatest first term in presidential history" despite low approval ratings.

Joe Biden

The 46th President of the United States, who claimed the U.S. economy was the world's best despite evidence to the contrary.

Josh Earnest

Barack Obama's last White House press secretary, who reflected that "Trump's candidacy, the essence of his being and everything that he stood for and everything about the way that he carried himself and everything that he championed and his rhetoric, his campaign tactics — all were anathema to everything that the Obama campaign and the Obama era, the Obama administration, had been about."

Jen Psaki

A former Obama staffer who questioned whether the Obama presidency could be considered a "success" if the electorate chose to replace him with someone so antithetical to his administration's goals.

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What they’re saying

“The outcome of the election was a direct rebuke of everything that we had been trying to do for the last 10 years.”

— Josh Earnest, Former White House Press Secretary (New York Times)

“Trump's candidacy, the essence of his being and everything that he stood for and everything about the way that he carried himself and everything that he championed and his rhetoric, his campaign tactics — all were anathema to everything that the Obama campaign and the Obama era, the Obama administration, had been about.”

— Josh Earnest, Former White House Press Secretary (New York Times)

“It's like, was that a success? I don't know, but it is a piece of history, which is important.”

— Jen Psaki, Former Obama Staffer (New York Times)

What’s next

The Incite Institute report is expected to provide further insights into the Obama administration's perspective on the 2016 election and the subsequent presidencies.

The takeaway

The pattern of overconfident, underperforming leaders who are convinced of their own success despite evidence to the contrary raises serious concerns about the quality of political leadership and the ability of the electorate to hold leaders accountable. The Dunning-Kruger effect appears to have played a significant role in the last several U.S. presidencies, with potentially dangerous consequences for the country.