Payton's Gamble Derails Broncos' Super Bowl Dreams

Coach's fourth-down decision backfires as Denver falls short in AFC Championship

Jan. 27, 2026 at 11:23am

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In a blizzard at Empower Field, Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton opted to go for it on fourth-and-1 instead of taking a short field goal, leading to a turnover on downs and ultimately a 10-7 loss to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. The decision was widely criticized as it short-circuited the Broncos' momentum and chances of reaching their first Super Bowl in a decade.

Why it matters

Payton's gutsy call was seen as a pivotal moment that derailed the Broncos' Super Bowl aspirations. The decision sparked debate around the growing analytics-driven trend of NFL coaches frequently going for it on fourth down, even in situations where taking the points seems the safer choice.

The details

With the Broncos leading 7-0 and driving for a potential two-score lead in the second quarter, Payton called a timeout on fourth-and-1 at the Patriots' 14-yard line. Instead of sending out the kicker for a short field goal, Payton kept his offense on the field, opting for a bootleg pass by backup QB Jarrett Stidham that fell incomplete. The Broncos never scored again, as the momentum shifted and the weather worsened.

  • The Broncos were leading 7-0 in the second quarter when the key fourth-down decision occurred.
  • The AFC Championship game was played on Sunday, January 26, 2026.

The players

Sean Payton

Head coach of the Denver Broncos who made the controversial fourth-down call.

Jarrett Stidham

Broncos backup quarterback who was tasked with executing the failed fourth-down play.

Wil Lutz

Veteran kicker for the Broncos who Payton opted not to send out for a short field goal attempt.

Marvin Mims Jr.

Patriots wide receiver who made a 52-yard catch to set up New England's lone touchdown.

Courtland Sutton

Broncos wide receiver who caught the team's only touchdown of the game.

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What they’re saying

“There will always be second thoughts.”

— Sean Payton, Head Coach, Denver Broncos (Denver Post)

“Go up 10-0. Keep the momentum. Because you did your homework before the game. You knew the weather was going to turn nasty. Even though Wil Lutz is a good kicker, it was going to be tough to kick in inclement weather. I thought this was a poor coaching decision and move by Sean Payton.”

— Booger McFarland, ESPN Analyst (ESPN)

“You've got a backup quarterback, you've got a chance to go up 10-0 and your defense is balling out of control. All of us were in agreement at that point: just kick the field goal, just kick the field goal.”

— Mark Schlereth, NFL Analyst, Fox Sports (The Dan Patrick Show)

What’s next

The Broncos' offseason will be filled with questions about Payton's decision and whether it ultimately cost the team a chance at the Super Bowl. The team's future plans at quarterback will also be a major storyline.

The takeaway

Payton's gamble on fourth down exemplifies the growing analytics-driven trend in the NFL of coaches frequently going for it on fourth down, even in situations where the safer choice seems to be taking the points. This decision backfired for the Broncos, leading to a momentum shift and ultimately their elimination from the playoffs, reigniting the debate around when it makes sense to be aggressive versus playing the percentages.