Warming Arctic Linked to Extreme Cold Spells in Eastern US

Scientists debate whether climate change is causing the polar vortex to stretch and disrupt the jet stream, leading to prolonged frigid weather.

Published on Feb. 7, 2026

Got story updates? Submit your updates here. ›

A warming Arctic is causing the polar vortex, a high-altitude air ribbon, to stretch and wobble, disrupting the jet stream and leading to extreme cold spells in the eastern United States, according to MIT researcher Judah Cohen. However, other scientists are skeptical of this link, arguing that climate models show extreme cold events should become less frequent as the planet warms. The debate highlights the complex relationship between climate change and short-term weather patterns.

Why it matters

Understanding the connection between climate change and extreme winter weather is crucial for preparing communities for the impacts of a warming world. While some scientists see a clear link between Arctic warming and cold outbreaks in the East, others argue the data shows the opposite trend. Resolving this scientific debate could inform policies and preparations for future severe winter events.

The details

Judah Cohen of MIT explains that as the Arctic warms, it can cause the polar vortex to stretch and wobble, disrupting the jet stream and leading to waves of high and low pressure that bring prolonged cold spells to the eastern US. This pattern has occurred several times in recent winters, including in 2021 and 2024-2025, causing blizzards and freezing temperatures. However, other researchers like Russell Blackport are skeptical, arguing that climate models show extreme cold events should become less severe as the planet warms overall.

  • The polar vortex stretched and wobbled in February 2021, causing a prolonged deep freeze that killed 248 people in Texas and knocked out power for millions.
  • The same polar vortex wobble reappeared in the winter of 2024-2025 and again last month, causing blizzard conditions across the East and an icy blast.
  • Dr. Cohen expects the grip of cold temperatures to continue throughout February 2026.

The players

Judah Cohen

A research scientist at MIT who has been studying how global warming might be causing colder winters in the eastern United States.

Russell Blackport

A research scientist at Environment and Climate Change Canada who is skeptical of the link between Arctic warming and extreme cold events.

Jennifer Francis

A senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Center in Falmouth, Massachusetts who says it's too soon to tell if the deep freeze is linked to climate change, but agrees long-term warming is changing seasonal weather patterns.

Amy Butler

A research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's chemical sciences laboratory in Boulder, Colorado who cautions that it's difficult to link a given weather event to climate change.

Got photos? Submit your photos here. ›

What they’re saying

“It's weird what's going on now in the stratosphere. These stretching events happen every winter, but just how the pattern is stuck is really remarkable.”

— Judah Cohen, Research Scientist, MIT (New York Times)

“These are interesting ideas, but I'm very skeptical. When I look at these papers, they're often not that convincing.”

— Russell Blackport, Research Scientist, Environment and Climate Change Canada (New York Times)

“It's going to take some pretty in-depth work, research with models and so forth to untangle all of the different factors that could be playing a role.”

— Jennifer Francis, Senior Scientist, Woodwell Climate Center (New York Times)

What’s next

Dr. Cohen expects the cold temperatures to continue throughout February, and forecasts another stretch and wobble of the polar vortex in late February into early March, leading to another blast of cold air across the Midwest, Great Plains or eastern United States.

The takeaway

The debate over the link between climate change and extreme winter weather highlights the complex and sometimes counterintuitive ways global warming can affect regional weather patterns. While more research is needed, this issue underscores the importance of preparing communities for a wider range of potential climate impacts, from heat waves to cold snaps, as the planet continues to warm.