Experts Warn of Potential 'Super El Niño' Brewing for California

Forecasters say the powerful climate pattern could return later this year, bringing intense heat waves, droughts, and flooding worldwide.

Mar. 13, 2026 at 1:07am

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Forecasters are warning that a powerful El Niño climate pattern could be primed for a comeback later this year, potentially reshaping weather across California and the globe. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, there is a 1-in-3 chance of a 'super El Niño' developing in October, November, and December 2026. If it strengthens, California could see a rollercoaster of soaking winter storms, flooding risks, and unusually warm temperatures.

Why it matters

El Niño is one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth, and its return could have far-reaching impacts. In California, strong El Niño winters have historically delivered heavier rains that can trigger floods and mudslides, especially after dry years. Globally, El Niño years often rank among the hottest on record and can influence hurricane seasons, typically suppressing storms in the Atlantic while boosting activity in the Pacific.

The details

The current La Niña pattern that has shaped recent weather is now fading, setting the stage for a potential El Niño comeback. Some climate scientists say recent models increasingly point to a 'significant, if not strong' El Niño event developing. If it strengthens, the pattern could unleash intense heat waves, trigger severe droughts, and cause flooding worldwide.

  • Forecasters are predicting a 1-in-3 chance of a 'super El Niño' developing in October, November, and December 2026.
  • The 2026 hurricane season is set to kick off on June 1.

The players

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center

The federal agency responsible for monitoring and predicting climate patterns, including El Niño.

Zeke Hausfather

A climate scientist who commented on social media about the potential return of El Niño.

Daniel Swain

A climate scientist who said recent models increasingly point to a 'significant, if not strong' El Niño event.

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What they’re saying

“The El Niño cometh”

— Zeke Hausfather, Climate scientist

“Recent models increasingly point to a 'significant, if not strong' event”

— Daniel Swain, Climate scientist

What’s next

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center will continue to monitor the development of the potential El Niño pattern and provide updates on its strength and potential impacts.

The takeaway

The return of a powerful El Niño pattern could have far-reaching consequences for California and the rest of the world, potentially bringing intense heat waves, droughts, and flooding. This serves as a reminder of the need to prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change, which can amplify the effects of natural climate patterns like El Niño.