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Upland Today
By the People, for the People
Cocaine Prices Fall as Overdose Deaths Rise
Research traces spike to policy changes in Colombia
Published on Feb. 22, 2026
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A new report finds that global cocaine production has hit an all-time high, leading to a surge in supply, lower prices, and thousands of additional overdose deaths in the U.S. Researchers trace the spike to policy changes in Colombia, including the end of a U.S.-backed aerial fumigation campaign and the demobilization of the FARC guerrilla group, which opened the door for rival traffickers to consolidate control and encourage more coca cultivation.
Why it matters
The cocaine boom has strained relations between the U.S. and Colombia, with the two countries working to address the issue. The research suggests that supply-side crackdowns at the source can impact traffickers' bottom line and potentially scale back production, though policymakers continue to grapple with the complex dynamics fueling the crisis.
The details
After years of decline, the world is now experiencing a historic boom in cocaine supply, with the United Nations finding that global cocaine production has hit an all-time high. Researchers attribute this to policy changes in Colombia, including the end of a U.S.-backed aerial fumigation campaign and the demobilization of the FARC guerrilla group, which opened the door for rival traffickers to consolidate control and encourage more coca cultivation. A crop-substitution program meant to pay farmers to uproot coca also backfired, as growers planted more to qualify for aid. By 2022, Colombia's coca cultivation and potential cocaine output were more than triple 2015 levels.
- In 2015, Colombia ended its U.S.-backed aerial fumigation campaign targeting coca crops.
- In 2016, Colombia signed a peace deal with the FARC guerrilla group.
- By 2022, Colombia's coca cultivation and potential cocaine output were more than triple 2015 levels.
The players
Xinming Du
Economist who co-authored research on the cocaine surge.
Benjamin Hansen
Economist who co-authored research on the cocaine surge.
Shan Zhang
Economist who co-authored research on the cocaine surge.
Eric Zou
Economist who co-authored research on the cocaine surge.
Gustavo Petro
President of Colombia, who met with U.S. President Trump to discuss the cocaine trade.
What they’re saying
“These new traffickers actively encouraged local farmers to plant more coca as they consolidated control.”
— Xinming Du, Benjamin Hansen, Shan Zhang, Eric Zou, Economists (NPR)
“They're going to respond to the bottom line. And if you make it a lot harder to produce things, well, they're gonna probably scale back production.”
— Benjamin Hansen, Economist (NPR)
What’s next
The surge in cocaine production and overdose deaths has contributed to tensions between the U.S. and Colombia, with the two countries working to address the issue. President Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro recently met, with fighting the cocaine trade high on the agenda.
The takeaway
The research suggests that supply-side crackdowns at the source can impact traffickers' bottom line and potentially scale back production, though policymakers continue to grapple with the complex dynamics fueling the cocaine crisis, which has led to a spike in overdose deaths in the U.S.
